Winter is not over? Star hedge fund manager warns that U.S. stocks could still hit new lows.
The billionaire hedge fund manager Paul said that the stock market may still hit new lows.
Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones said on Tuesday that even if US President Trump slows down his tariff policy towards China, the stock market could still hit new lows.
He said, "To me, it's clear. Trump is steadfast in pushing forward with tariffs, and the Federal Reserve is steadfast in not cutting interest rates. This is not good news for the stock market." He further pointed out, "Even if Trump reduces the tariff intensity towards China to 50%, we are still likely to hit new lows."
Jones' pessimistic remarks come at a time of high volatility in global markets. Last month, Trump announced the highest tariffs on Chinese imported goods since the 1960s, causing market turmoil. The S&P 500 index plummeted at one point, and has since rebounded slightly, but is still about 8% below its historic high.
So far this year, US tariffs on Chinese imported goods have increased cumulatively to 145%, while China retaliated by imposing retaliatory tariffs of 125% on US products.
Jones noted, "Trump may reduce tariffs to 50% or even 40%, but even so, this is still the largest tax increase since the 1960s. It can be expected that the US economic growth rate will weaken by 2% to 3%."
As the founder and chief investment officer of Tudor Investment Corporation, Jones believes that the stock market has not yet hit bottom amid ongoing macroeconomic deterioration. He pointed out that the Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% since December last year. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has stated that policymakers want to see clearer impacts of trade policies before adjusting rates.
Jones further warned, "Unless the Federal Reserve takes a very dovish stance and cuts rates significantly, we are likely to hit new lows. At that point, the real tough times will begin, forcing the Federal Reserve to act and forcing Trump to make changes. That's when we might see some reality."
Paul Tudor Jones rose to fame for successfully predicting and profiting from the 1987 US stock market crash. He is currently also the chairman of the non-profit organization Just Capital, which ranks US publicly traded companies based on social and environmental metrics.
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