2025 oil market may be facing a comprehensive surplus. Major Wall Street banks are lowering their oil price forecasts one after another.

OPEC+ suddenly announced a significant increase in production, leading to a sharp drop in crude oil futures prices, with major Wall Street banks subsequently lowering their oil price forecasts. Goldman Sachs has lowered its Brent crude oil price expectations for this year and next by $2 to $3 per barrel. Morgan Stanley has made an even larger adjustment, lowering this year's quarterly price expectations by $5. ING Groep has also lowered its oil price outlook. Morgan Stanley forecasts that the situation of oversupply in crude oil will worsen, with a daily oversupply of crude oil reaching 1.1 million barrels in the second half of this year. This means that the oil market will face the risk of oversupply by 2025. Concerns about oversupply are mounting, and the market outlook is becoming increasingly unclear. The OPEC+ alliance led by Saudi Arabia made a decision on Saturday to significantly increase production. This decision caught the market off guard, leading to a drop in crude oil futures prices. On Monday, US crude oil futures prices fell by 4.27% to $56.30 per barrel. The global benchmark Brent crude oil fell by $2.39 to $59.09 per barrel. Oil prices have fallen by over 20% so far this year. Just a month ago, OPEC+ had already announced a similar increase in production for May, with two consecutive months of production increases putting pressure on the market. The direct reason for the increase in production is the non-compliance of major member countries, especially Iraq and Kazakhstan. Several OPEC+ representatives revealed that unless countries agree to production cuts, Saudi Arabia is considering gradually canceling its previous commitment to voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day at a similar rate. Analysts believe that Saudi Arabia seems to be hoping to win the favor of the US government with this move, while also challenging the rise of US shale oil. Goldman Sachs analyst Daan Struyven stated in a report that high idle production capacity and high risks of economic recession indicate downward risks to oil prices. They believe that OPEC+'s move may also aim to "strategically constrain US shale oil supply." The oil market is facing increasing uncertainty. Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy at ING, believes that Saudi Arabia's tolerance for low oil prices is key to determining the depth of its production increase action. Tariff risks have led to unclear demand prospects, while changes in OPEC+ policy have exacerbated supply-side uncertainty. ING predicts that due to OPEC+'s more aggressive production increases, the situation of oversupply in crude oil will be brought forward, and the market will be in a state of oversupply throughout 2025.