This is the most anticipated non-farm payrolls report by the market! The US added 177,000 jobs, reinforcing the path to a "soft landing," and expectations of interest rate cuts remain strong.

In April, the US non-farm employment market continued to show stable growth, with the unemployment rate remaining steady. This indicates that the new aggressive global tariff policy led by US President Donald Trump and the global trade battle have not yet had a substantial negative impact on US business recruitment plans. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday showed that non-farm employment increased by 177,000 in the month, lower than the previous month but better than the expected 130,000 by economists. The non-farm employment data for the previous two months were slightly revised downwards. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, in line with market expectations. This freshly released non-farm employment data can be considered the most anticipated data in the global financial market - the market scale brought by this non-farm data is "just right", better than market expectations but not exceptional. It can reflect that the momentum of the US economy is still strong and will not trigger a change in interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve (traders are still betting that the Fed will cut interest rates four times this year, with the first rate cut expected to occur in June). In the eyes of some analysts who are optimistic about US assets, as the US-China trade negotiations are returning to normal, this non-farm employment data is enough to change the recent fate of American Financial Group, Inc. After the data release, US stock index futures and US Treasury bond yields rose significantly, and the rebound momentum of the US dollar index, which had suffered heavy losses since April, is expected to continue. Non-farm employment growth in the United States remained strong in April, with the unemployment rate remaining stable. The latest data report shows that the US labor market is still mildly cooling, but better than most economists expected. Although US businesses face significant uncertainty and financial market turbulence due to tariff policies, they have not significantly reduced recruitment. However, most economists expect that the most severe negative impacts associated with tariff policies will manifest in the coming months. Federal Reserve officials have generally stated that they are not in a hurry to announce interest rate cuts until they have a clearer understanding of the actual impact of Trump's tariff policy on the US economy. Traders in the current interest rate futures market generally expect the Fed to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at the May 6-7 meeting, but are betting that the Fed will announce its first rate cut of the year in June. Although the Fed is an independent institution, Trump has recently continued to pressure it to lower borrowing costs. Trump's strong pressure on the independence of the Fed briefly hit the US dollar index in April, causing long-term confidence in holding US dollar assets to deteriorate sharply as the Trump administration sought to impeach Fed Chairman Powell and interfere with the independence of the Fed, causing investors to turn to traditional safe-haven assets such as the yen and gold. In April, US non-farm employment growth covered multiple industries, with job growth in the healthcare and transportation and warehousing industries leading the way. The manufacturing sector made significant job cuts due to a deep contraction in overall PMI output since 2020. Job growth in the US transportation and warehousing sector reached its highest level since December of last year, indicating that the surge in import orders locked in before the tariffs took effect and the related boost in business activities stimulated labor demand, with US companies rushing to take action to secure orders before the tariffs take effect. The US federal government has been cutting jobs for three consecutive months, marking the longest period of job cuts since 2022, reflecting efforts by the US government, led by Musk, to reduce federal staffing and compress government spending. Challenger, Gray & Christmas, a human resources company, reported on Thursday that all industries in US government agencies are leading in layoffs by 2025, with about 282,000 job cuts attributed mostly to government layoffs and budget cuts at DOGE. Economists generally believe that as the negative effects of cutting government spending spread to some core contractors, universities, and other institutions dependent on federal funds, or to government-related private enterprises, as many as 500,000 US jobs could be threatened. The labor force participation rate - the proportion of the workforce or those actively seeking employment in the total population - unexpectedly rose to 62.6% in April. Among them, the participation rate in the core golden age labor age group of 25 to 54 years old reached a new high in seven months. This reflects a sufficient reserve of potential golden age laborers in the US. Economists are also closely monitoring the impact of labor supply and demand on wage growth in the US, especially as inflation risks rise significantly. The report shows that average hourly wages rose by 0.2% compared to the previous month, a significant slowdown from March; the year-over-year growth rate was 3.8%. Olu Sonora, director of US economic research at Fitch Ratings, said after the non-farm report was released: "Overall, this is a good employment report. The 'R' in the labor market in the report signifies resilience, not recession. However, given the background of trade policy that may drag down the economy, we should temper our enthusiasm for the future." The non-farm data reflects that the US economy is still optimistic, but it seems difficult to prevent a trend of economic deterioration in the US by 2025? Other data shows signs of deterioration in the US labor market. Job vacancies in the US in March fell to a low not seen since September last year; a private sector report showed that non-farm job additions in April reached the lowest level in nine months. Economists generally expect that as the uncertainty of tariff-related issues continues to inhibit US business expansion plans, layoffs may accelerate in the coming months. United Parcel Service (UPS.US), a leader in US freight and parcel delivery, expects to cut 20,000 jobs to cope with weakening demand for online shopping due to tariffs; Volvo Group and Cleveland-Cliffs, among others, will also announce large-scale layoffs. The Trump administration has decided to impose up to an astonishing 145% tariff on China (one of the top three trading partners of the US) and at least a 10% tariff on most other countries. Many forecasters have warned that the global economy will sharply slow down in the future, with some even predicting a severe economic recession in the US this year. This is partly due to the continued pressure from high inflation since 2022, which is facing the US amid significant inflation pressures.Family demand may see a significant decline, with some families struggling to make ends meet due to limited savings. Family demand or consumption accounts for approximately two-thirds of the US Gross Domestic Product.Bloomberg's latest survey report shows that the global tariff battle initiated by the Trump administration has had a significant impact. Prominent economists consulted and interviewed generally believe that in the new round of global trade games, as well as the so-called "trade policy tug-of-war" that China, the EU, Canada, and other global economic powers have been pulled into due to US tariff policies, the probability that the US will fall into economic recession in the next 12 months has jumped from 30% shown in the March survey to 45%. This also means that the probability of the US economy falling into recession is almost the same as flipping a coin. According to the well-known Wall Street research institution BCA Research, the probability of the US economy entering a recession has already exceeded 50%, while J.P. Morgan predicts that the probability of a US economic recession is as high as 60%. Torsten Slk, chief economist at Apollo Global Management Inc., a top asset management firm on Wall Street, recently stated that the severe negative impact of Trump's tariff policy on US businesses has become evident: new orders are declining, capital expenditure plans are continuously decreasing, inventories are rising before tariffs take effect, and US companies are revising down profit expectations. For ordinary American households, consumer confidence has plummeted to historic lows. In order to avoid price increases caused by tariffs, consumers have been buying goods ahead of schedule, undoubtedly overdrawing their future consumption power. At the same time, the tourism industry, especially international travel and travel to the US by foreign consumers, is beginning to show clear signs of slowing down. Economist Slk from Apollo analyzed the downward trajectory of the US economy from April 2025 to summer, emphasizing that adjustments in tariff policies and extended transportation times will lead to major disruptions in the US supply chain, thereby affecting economic activity. Ultimately, by the summer of 2025, the US may enter an economic recession. If the non-farm job market deteriorates rapidly, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates! If signs of the US economy entering a recession become increasingly evident, the probability of the Federal Reserve taking "precautionary rate cuts" will greatly increase. Therefore, labor market-related data, such as initial jobless claims and the unemployment rate, are crucial for investors to judge the health of the US economy. If both data points significantly exceed expectations in the short term, it may indicate that the US economy is beginning to enter a recession, and the Federal Reserve may initiate a new round of rate cuts. "If the economy slows significantly, or even possibly falls into a recession, then I expect the FOMC to support faster and larger reductions in Fed policy rates." Federal Reserve Governor Waller, who has voting rights on the FOMC monetary policy, recently stated. In 2026, FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hamrick recently stated, "If we have clear and convincing data before June, if we know that taking action at that time is correct, then I believe the Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Committee will take action. The premise is that we know the correct policy direction at that time." Hamrick indicated when asked if a rate cut in June is possible.