JP Morgan: Gold to reach $4000, silver still has room for catch-up rally.

JPMorgan released a research report stating that the bull market for gold has entered a new structural phase. They have raised their price target for gold to $3675 per ounce for the fourth quarter of 2025, and expect it to surpass $4000 in the second quarter of 2026. The main reasons for this are stagflation, trade wars, and continuous central bank buying driving a reassessment of structural demand. Central bank demand remains the biggest driver, expected to reach 900 tons in 2025; investor demand is strong, with a net increase of 715 tons in global gold ETFs. The average price of silver for the year is expected to be $35, and could reach $43 in 2026. Key points from JP Morgan: Central bank demand remains the biggest driver Despite a net purchase of over 1000 tons for three consecutive years, JPMorgan believes that central banks have not yet completed their "de-dollarization" allocation. Emerging market central banks (such as China, India, Saudi Arabia) are particularly active, increasing the proportion of gold in their official reserves to nearly 20%. Strong investor demand ETFs, futures, and Chinese retail demand are driving the increase. Global gold ETFs saw a net increase of 715 tons in 2025, with significant growth in China (over 50% increase since the beginning of the year); meanwhile, investors' recognition of gold's hedging attributes in stagflation, recession, and policy risks has strengthened. Clear threshold for gold price increase A net increase of 350 tons of holdings per quarter is needed for price stability and increase. If central banks and investors collectively increase gold holdings by more than 350 tons in a quarter, the price will steadily rise; for every additional 100 tons, the price will increase by an average of 2%. The current quarterly average has reached 710 tons, supporting the upward price forecast. Silver still has room for catch-up growth, with an average price of $35 for the year Weak industrial demand may put pressure on silver in the short term, but it is expected to rise to $39 in the second half of 2025 as base metals stabilize and gold leads the way. The average price for silver in 2026 could reach $43.