The Fed's dovish stance combined with eased expectations on tariffs relief leads to three consecutive strong gains in the US stock market.
The three major U.S. stock indexes rose on expectations of interest rate cuts and optimistic trade comments from Trump.
On Thursday, the U.S. stock market rose for the third consecutive trading day, with tech stocks leading the gains as the market digested speeches by Federal Reserve officials, boosting expectations of interest rate cuts. Major indices continued their upward trend following President Trump's possible cancellation of some of the toughest tariffs. AJ Bell's financial analysis manager Danni Hewson said, "For a market that has become accustomed to a period of exceptionalism, what is needed for a return to normality is certainty (seemingly something that Trump cannot provide)."
The S&P 500 index rose by 2.03%, while the Nasdaq 100 index rose by 2.74%. Data showed that the S&P 500 index had risen by at least 1.5% for three consecutive days, the longest such streak of 1.5% gains since 1974. The Cboe Global Markets Inc VIX volatility index hovered around 26. In individual stocks, IBM (IBM.US) fell by 6.6% as investors were dissatisfied with the company's latest financial report. Agricultural equipment retailer Tractor Supply (TSCO.US) saw its stock price drop by 3.4% as the company cut large expenses and lowered expectations.
Chief Investment Officer of Abound Financial, David Laut, said, "Now that the market has regained a significant portion of lost ground, it can continue this momentum. While the market's recovery will not be a straight line, seeing the market pricing in the environment post-tariff cancellation is encouraging."
At the same time, bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates earlier than expected boosted the stock market. Federal Reserve Board member Woll said on Thursday that he would support rate cuts if tariffs lead to job losses. Cleveland Fed Chair Hammack said in an interview that if there is clear evidence of economic trends, officials could take action as early as June.
Economically, initial jobless claims rose slightly, reflecting stability in the labor market. In March, the U.S. saw the largest drop in existing home sales since 2022. Investors are also closely watching a series of earnings reports that paint a picture of uncertainty. IBM's stock price fell and earnings disappointed, with the company citing economic uncertainty and potential impacts from U.S. government cost-cutting. PepsiCo, Inc. saw a decline in stock price after the company's rare announcement of lower-than-expected earnings per share and cut in yearly profit outlook due to global trade uncertainty.
However, the stock market's response to guidance changes is not entirely negative. Despite its first quarterly sales decline in nearly five years and a lowered yearly outlook, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s stock rose. American Airlines Group Inc. cancelled its annual profit forecast, yet its stock price continued to climb.
Mark Hackett from Nationwide Bank said, "Management providing cautious guidance or no guidance, while widely expected, has been encouraging for the market."
Hackett added that this contrasts sharply with recent years when the market typically reacted coolly to earnings reports. After weeks of volatility, investors are now "hoping for market sentiment to stabilize."
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