Shenwan Hongyuan Group: Trade-in programs boost home appliance consumption, industry sales in the first eight months of this year still benefit from a low base.

Shenwan Hongyuan Group released a research report stating that the 2025 trade-in policy for old appliances has already been implemented. In addition to continuing the subsidy standards of the 24-year policy, new products such as microwave ovens, water purifiers, dishwashers, and rice cookers have been included in the subsidy range. Consumers who have already received subsidies for certain products under the 24-year policy will continue to receive subsidies if they purchase the same type of product after 25 years. The expansion of the subsidy categories in this policy is expected to further attract consumers and promote the trade-in work. Referring to the implementation time of the 24-year policy, the firm predicts that the overall industry sales from January to August this year still have a low base advantage. Key points of Shenwan Hongyuan Group: Improving the trade-in policy for old appliances in 2025 to expand capacity and stimulate the consumer electronics market. After the implementation of the trade-in policy in 2024, the range of subsidized home appliance categories expanded, leading to a significant increase in demand: In addition to the 5 subsidized categories of color TVs, refrigerators, washing machines, air conditioners, and computers that have been covered since 2009, 3 new categories of water heaters, household stoves, and range hoods were added, totaling 8 subsidized categories. According to the data from AVC Cloud, in 2024, range hoods achieved retail sales of 36.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, with a retail volume of 20.83 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%; gas stoves achieved retail sales of 20.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%, with a retail volume of 24.29 million units, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%; electric water heaters achieved retail sales of 23.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, with a retail volume of 18.02 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%; gas water heaters achieved retail sales of 29.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%, with a retail volume of 13.43 million units, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%. In particular, from W01 to W34 (August 26), the year-on-year change in online retail sales of range hoods, gas stoves, and water heaters was -0.6%, +3.9%, and -4.0% respectively; the year-on-year change in offline retail sales was -1.3%, -1.5%, and -9.5% respectively. It can be seen that the introduction of new detailed subsidies for kitchen and electrical products after the policy was implemented has significantly boosted demand. The government work report in 2025 proposed to "arrange 300 billion yuan of special long-term national bonds to support the trade-in of consumer goods for old ones," which, compared to the support in 2024, is expected to further stimulate the market. Strong double-digit growth in the range hood and gas stove categories in Q1 2025, with a recovery in dishwasher sales. Looking at the offline market, according to AVC Cloud data, in Q1 2025, the range hood achieved sales of 330,400 units, a year-on-year increase of 33%, with sales of 1.419 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39%; gas stoves achieved sales of 343,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 21%, with sales of 761 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38%; online sales of range hoods reached 1.7127 million units, a year-on-year increase of 20%, with sales of 2.297 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16%; gas stoves achieved sales of 2.287 million units, a year-on-year increase of 22%, with sales of 1.496 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19%. Online sales of range hoods continued to grow significantly, while offline sales continued to improve. In the emerging kitchen and electrical category, dishwashers achieved a year-on-year increase in offline retail sales of 23% to 68,300 units, with sales of 571 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29%; online sales reached 190,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 5%, with sales of 752 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%. As a category newly included in the trade-in subsidy list in 2025, dishwasher sales overall showed a trend of recovery. Risk warning: Fluctuations in raw material prices; Exchange rate fluctuations; Political fluctuations at home and abroad.