Huaan: maintain a "buy" rating for CHINAHONGQIAO (01378), optimistic about the continued strong supply and demand situation, and bullish on the aluminum price space.

Huaan released a research report stating that it maintains a "buy" rating for CHINAHONGQIAO (01378), with the estimated net profit attributable to shareholders for the years 2025-2027 being 207.18/217.69/229.63 billion yuan (compared to 211.25/226.06 billion yuan for 2025-2026), corresponding to P/E ratios of 5.7/5.4/5.1 times. It is reported that the company released its annual report for the year 2024, with CHINAHONGQIAO achieving an operating income of 156.169 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.87%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 22.372 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 95.21%. The company distributed a final dividend of 0.102 Hong Kong dollars per share, with a total dividend of 0.161 Hong Kong dollars per share for 2024, an increase of 155.6% compared to 2023. Huaan's main points are as follows: Main product prices and volumes rising, revenue and profit growth impressive In 2024, the company's revenue from aluminum alloy products was 102.434 billion yuan, up 8.2% year-on-year; revenue from alumina was 37.352 billion yuan, up 40.6% year-on-year; revenue from aluminum alloy processed products was 15.571 billion yuan, up 35.4% year-on-year. Volume: In 2024, the company sold 5.837 million tons of aluminum alloy products (an increase of 1.5% year-on-year), approximately 10.921 million tons of alumina (an increase of 5.3% year-on-year), and approximately 7.66 million tons of aluminum alloy processed products (an increase of 32.1% year-on-year). Price (excluding tax): In 2024, the average price of aluminum alloy products was 17,550 yuan per ton (an increase of 6.6% year-on-year), the average price of alumina was 3,420 yuan per ton (an increase of 33.6% year-on-year), and the average price of aluminum alloy processed products was 20,324 yuan per ton (an increase of 2.5% year-on-year). Profit: Rising product prices drove an increase in profit margins, with the company's gross profit margin for aluminum alloy products in 2024 being approximately 24.6% (an increase of 7.2 percentage points year-on-year), the gross profit margin for alumina products being approximately 35.4% (an increase of 24.3 percentage points year-on-year), and the gross profit margin for aluminum alloy processed products being approximately 24.4% (an increase of 10.2 percentage points year-on-year). Continued strong supply and demand situation, positive outlook for aluminum prices In 2024, domestic production of electrolytic aluminum reached 434.6 million tons (an increase of 4.3% year-on-year), while consumption reached 451.8 million tons (an increase of 5.5% year-on-year). The global economy has shown resilience, with new energy, photovoltaics, power grids, home appliances, and other sectors contributing to an increase in aluminum usage, leading to demand growth outpacing supply growth. Since 2025, positive data on social financing and new loans in China have reflected confidence in economic growth. Policies have further boosted the real estate sector, with housing prices in first-tier cities rising month-on-month in March and transaction activity in the housing market increasing. Government subsidies are stimulating consumption of automobiles, home appliances, and other products, with demand for aluminum expected to continue growing.