CMB International: The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a neutral and wait-and-see policy stance in the short term, or may continue to pause rate cuts.

CICC International released a research report stating that after the data was announced, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bonds slightly decreased by 4 basis points. The market has slightly lowered its expectations for a rate cut in 2025 but increased its expectations for a rate cut in 2026. Powell stated in a recent speech that uncertainty has increased significantly, but the economy is still in a good position. The Federal Reserve does not need to act hastily and needs to observe the impact of White House tariffs and other policies. The bank predicts that the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a neutral and cautious policy stance in the short term, as a dovish attitude may increase the risk of stagflation brought about by the possibility of Trump raising tariffs, while a hawkish attitude may further exacerbate market volatility. The Federal Reserve may continue to pause rate cuts in March, May, and June. As Trump's policies lead to a significant slowdown in the economy, the Federal Reserve may cut rates once in September or December. The report points out that the US added 151,000 non-farm jobs in February, slightly below market expectations but showing a small increase overall from the previous month. Private sector job growth rebounded significantly, but federal government employment decreased, with the impact of the government shutdown becoming apparent. The monthly growth rate of hourly wages declined again, while wage growth remained modestly slow, which is favorable for a decrease in core service inflation. The unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.1%, and the U6 broad unemployment rate rose significantly, with a large decrease in the household survey's employed population.