HK Stock Market Move | Aluminum stocks surged in early trading, with reports of a 14% increase in premiums for imported Japanese aluminum. Morgan Stanley predicts a shortage of supply in the aluminum market.

In early trading today, aluminum stocks rose, with CHINAHONGQIAO (01378) up 4.58% to HK$15.06, Aluminum Corporation Of China (02600) up 3.95% to HK$5.26, and RUSAL (00486) up 2.18% to HK$5.16. According to reports, global aluminum producers are seeking a premium of $245-260 per ton from Japanese buyers for April-June aluminum shipments, representing a 7%-14% increase from the current quarter. Japan is an important importer of aluminum globally, and the quarterly premium negotiated is used as a benchmark in the region against the London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum price. Research from Guotai Junan Securities suggests that by 2025, domestic aluminum production capacity will be at its peak, with limited short-term growth in overseas capacity, leading to relatively rigid global aluminum production growth. Russia's plan to resume exports of aluminum to the US may exacerbate the tight supply of Chinese aluminum. JPMorgan Chase predicts a supply shortage of over 600,000 tons in the global aluminum market by 2025, with a deficit in fundamentals pointing to an increase in aluminum prices to $2,850 per ton in the fourth quarter of 2025.