Guo Mingqi: Intel Corporation (INTC.US) Panther Lake mass production delayed to mid fourth quarter of this year.

Guo Mingchi released his latest research on Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering, indicating that the mass production time of Intel Corporation's Panther Lake (PTL) has been delayed from early September 2025 to mid-4Q25. The difference in shipment times between the chips and the finished products (PC/NB) is approximately 2-4 weeks, indicating that PTL NB may not become popular until 2026. This means that Intel Corporation (INTC.US) will miss out on the end-of-year sales peak in 2025, and the revenue and profit in 2H25 will face downside risks. Guo Mingchi pointed out that although Intel Corporation publicly stated that PTL is expected to enter mass production in 2H25, the delay is still within their expected timeline. However, such a decision would not have been made without serious production issues. The delay of PTL is detrimental to Intel Corporation's revenue and profit in 2H25, as well as the morale of the organization and supply chain trust. Based on Guo Mingchi's investigation on Intel Corporation's advanced process consumables shipment, the shipments in 3Q25 have not shown significant changes compared to the present, confirming the possibility of the delay of Intel Corporation's PTL. In 2H25, Intel Corporation will mainly rely on Arrow Lake (ARL) to compete with AMD and Qualcomm. As ARL is below 40 TOPs, and the brand's willingness to promote Lunar Lake (LNL) is not high, it indicates that Intel Corporation is at a disadvantage in the AI PC competition in 2H25. Guo Mingchi stated that more proactive brand operators have planned to have specific high-end models adopt the PTL QS (Qualification sample) produced in small quantities at the end of September for early listing. However, due to the limited quantity of QS, this will not significantly help Intel Corporation. It will be difficult for Intel Corporation to gain the trust of external IC design customers and invest substantial resources in developing 18A chips with Intel Corporation until the chips produced using the 18A process are successfully shipped.