Neutron's maiden flight postponed + performance outlook disappointing "SpaceX rival" Rocket Lab (RKLB.US) questioned by investors.

Rocket Lab (RKLB.US), also known as the "SpaceX rival," saw a significant drop in stock price in pre-market trading on Friday after announcing its fourth-quarter financial results and postponing the first flight of the Neutron rocket to the second half of 2025. This was a slight adjustment from the previous management's target of "mid-2025," leading some sell-side analysts to speculate that the rocket's launch date may be even later. The company's performance outlook was below analysts' expectations, highlighting setbacks in its ambitions to explore space and unlock medium-sized launch capabilities, leading investors to question the company's ability to achieve its rocket launch plans and subsequently sell off the company's stock. Rocket Lab also simultaneously launched a landing platform dedicated to the Neutron rocket. CEO Peter Beck emphasized, "2025 will undoubtedly be the year of Neutron, and we are very excited to completely unlock the bottleneck of medium-space launch by bringing Neutron to the launch pad." The floating platform named "Return on Investment" is expected to start operating in 2026, assisting in achieving the goal of reusability for the Neutron rocket. In terms of technological breakthroughs, the company introduced a new low-cost satellite called "Flatellite." This satellite is described as scalable, highly resistant, and high-power multifunctional satellite that provides secure, low-latency high-speed connectivity, remote sensing, and other capabilities for national security, defense, and commercial purposes, suitable for large-scale constellations. During the company's latest earnings call, CFO Adam Spice stated that Rocket Lab had strong execution capabilities by the end of the fourth quarter, enabling the advancement of the company's organic growth plans and vertical integration of supply chains and key capabilities through inorganic means to achieve significant market expansion. The latest performance outlook and guidance indicate that the company's management expects first-quarter revenue in the range of approximately $1.17 billion to $1.23 billion, lower than the market consensus of $1.357 billion. With the slight delay in the first flight of the Neutron rocket and performance outlook falling short of market expectations, the secondary market reacted strongly. As of the time of writing, Rocket Lab's stock price plummeted by over 14% in pre-market trading on Friday, continuing the 6.7% decline in Thursday's trading session. Short positions in the stock are currently very crowded, with short interest accounting for as much as 10.4% of the total outstanding shares. Rocket Lab is a private aerospace manufacturing and launch services company based in San Francisco, with deep roots in New Zealand, founded by Peter Beck. It is initially known for developing the Electron small rocket, which provides customized and cost-effective launch services for the small satellite market. In recent years, Rocket Lab has been actively developing the medium-sized Neutron rocket to enter larger payload and broader market domains. Compared to SpaceX, founded by Elon Musk, SpaceX has established heavy and medium reusable rocket systems such as Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy, dominating the global market with large-scale launch services and expanding commercial and government orders. Rocket Lab, on the other hand, started later, with its business mainly focused on the Electron launch services for the small satellite market; their Neutron rocket project aims to expand into the medium-sized market, targeting customers who need larger payload capabilities but may not require the extremely high carrying capacity like Falcon Heavy. Rocket Lab's strengths lie in its focus and rapid iteration capabilities, as well as its experience in the manufacturing and testing of small rockets. If successful, the Neutron project could not only fill the existing gap in the medium-sized launch market but also further enhance their competitiveness in the higher-end market. However, compared to SpaceX, Rocket Lab still faces challenges in terms of funding, research and development resources, and technological maturity, with its overall business scale and market influence currently far behind SpaceX.