Preview of US Stock Market | The three major stock index futures rose together as the Federal Reserve once again "flashed the red light" on its favorite recession indicator.

1. Before the opening of US stocks on Thursday, US stock index futures all rose. As of the press release, Dow Jones futures rose by 0.33%, S&P 500 index futures rose by 0.66%, and Nasdaq futures rose by 0.67%. 2. As of the press release, the German DAX index fell by 0.65%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose by 0.41%, the French CAC 40 index fell by 0.11%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index fell by 0.59%. 3. As of the press release, WTI crude oil rose by 1.12% to $69.39 per barrel. Brent crude oil also rose by 1.12% to $72.88 per barrel. Market News The Fed's favorite recession indicator is flashing again! Is the US economy "seeing red"? A typical recession warning signal is flashing in the US Treasury market - the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond is lower than the yield on the 3-month US Treasury bond, known as an inverted yield curve. This warning signal has a reliable track record in predicting economic recessions in the past few decades (12-18 months after the signal appears). In fact, the New York Fed considers this to be a very reliable indicator, so they update and provide the probability of a recession occurring within the next 12 months each month. At the end of January, when the yield on the 10-year US bond was about 0.31 percentage points higher than the yield on the 3-month US bond, the New York Fed's model showed a 23% probability of a US economic recession in the next 12 months. However, with the inversion of the yield curve between the 10-year and 3-month US bonds, the probability of an economic recession has increased. US stocks and the dollar are both cooling off, is the "American exceptionalism" halo fading? Earlier this year, investors were betting that US President Trump's policies would drive the US stock market and the dollar to stand out in the global market. However, this expectation seems to be facing increasing challenges. Trump's reforms in government and his large-scale initiatives in trade and other policies have not instilled confidence in investors, but have injected uncertainty, causing consumers and businesses to worry about the economic outlook, threatening the narrative of American exceptionalism. In addition, in recent years, the US large tech and growth companies that have mainly driven market gains have been stumbling due to concerns about valuations and China's low-cost artificial intelligence model, DeepSeek. Fed's Bostic: Interest rates need to be maintained in a restrictive range to curb inflation. Raphael Bostic, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, said that the Fed should maintain the current interest rate level to continue putting downward pressure on inflation. Speaking at a housing conference in Atlanta on Wednesday, Bostic said, "We need to maintain the status quo." He added, "It can be said that we are achieving our employment goals, and now we must control our price stability goals. We need to maintain a restrictive policy stance." Last month, policymakers kept rates unchanged to give more time to observe further progress on inflation and to better understand the potential impact of President Donald Trump's policies on the economy. The Fed's benchmark interest rate is currently in the target range of 4.25% to 4.5%, a full percentage point lower than last September. Trump cancels Chevron Corporation's operating license in Venezuela, oil prices rise for the first time in three days. On Thursday, oil prices climbed for the first time in three days, as concerns over supply resurfaced after US President Donald Trump announced the withdrawal of Chevron Corporation's (CVX.US) operating license in Venezuela. Just a day earlier, contracts had closed at their lowest levels since December 10th, due to an unexpected increase in US fuel inventories suggesting weak demand, and hopes of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. Both oil benchmarks have fallen by about 5% so far this month. Trump said on Wednesday that he would revoke the license granted to Chevron Corporation to operate in Venezuela more than two years ago by former President Biden. Chevron Corporation's business in Venezuela exports approximately 240,000 barrels of crude oil per day, accounting for over a quarter of the country's total oil production. Terminating the license means Chevron Corporation will no longer be able to export Venezuelan crude oil. "The Trump Trade" completely fizzles out! Bitcoin spot ETF loses over $1 billion in a single day! Is the next stop 70,000? Investors withdrew over $1 billion from US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on Tuesday, marking the largest single-day outflow since these funds first appeared in January last year. The weakening demand for ETFs has exacerbated the decline in Bitcoin prices. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) saw the highest outflow of funds, followed by the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT). At the same time, Bitcoin prices have been falling as investors avoid riskier assets in the face of uncertainty. Overall, Bitcoin funds have seen outflows of around $2.1 billion in the past six days, the longest outflow period since June last year. Individual Stock News Daqo New Energy Corp Sponsored ADR (DQ.US) Q4 revenue decreased by 59.0% year-on-year, with a net loss of $180.2 million. Daqo New Energy Corp Sponsored ADR's Q4 revenue was $195.4 million, a decrease of 59.0% year-on-year; net loss attributable to the company's shareholders was $180.2 million, with a loss per ADS of $2.71. Adjusted net loss attributable to the company's shareholders was $170.7 million, with a loss per ADS of $2.56. Compared to the third quarter of 2024, the decline in revenue was mainly due to a decrease in average selling prices, but an increase in sales volume mitigated this impact. The fourth-quarter polysilicon production was 34,236 tons, compared to 43,592 tons in the previous quarter; sales volume was 42,191 tons, compared to 48,235 tons in the previous quarter.42,101 tons. Looking ahead, the company expects to produce approximately 25,000 to 28,000 tons of polysilicon in the first quarter of 2025. It is estimated that the total annual production of polysilicon in 2025 will be around 110,000 to 140,000 tons, including the impact of annual facility maintenance by the company.NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) holds up against "computing power questions", AI spending frenzy still strong. NVIDIA Corporation's Q4 revenue increased by 78% year-on-year to $39.331 billion, analyst expectations were $38.05 billion; with data center revenue of $35.58 billion, a 93.32% increase year-on-year. Q4 net profit was $22.066 billion, up 72% year-on-year, corresponding to a net profit per share of $0.89, analyst expectations were $0.84. The company's recent quarterly sales exceeded NVIDIA Corporation's annual revenue two years ago, when NVIDIA Corporation's annual total revenue was $27 billion, highlighting how fast the company is growing. In the 2025 fiscal year, NVIDIA Corporation achieved total revenue of $130.497 billion, a 114% increase year-on-year; net profit reached $72.8 billion, a 145% increase year-on-year. The data center division is NVIDIA Corporation's largest source of revenue to date, with sales of $35.6 billion, exceeding the average expected $34.1 billion. Salesforce, Inc. (CRM.US) disappoints with Q4 revenue and guidance, intensifying concerns about AI agent competition. Salesforce, Inc.'s Q4 revenue increased by 7.6% year-on-year to $9.99 billion, below market expectations; earnings per share, excluding certain items, were $2.78, better than the market's expected $2.61. This software company achieved single-digit revenue growth for the third consecutive quarter, while maintaining a faster growth pace long-term. Looking ahead, Salesforce, Inc. expects revenue in the 2026 fiscal year ending January 2026 to be between $40.5 billion and $40.9 billion, with analysts' average expectation being $41.5 billion. The company forecasts an adjusted operating margin of approximately 34%, compared to analysts' average expectations of 33.9%. Synopsys, Inc. (SNPS.US) exceeded expectations in Q1 performance, maintaining stock price guidance. Adjusted earnings per share for Synopsys, Inc. in this fiscal quarter ending January 31 were $3.03, exceeding analyst expectations of $2.79, despite a 12% year-on-year decrease in revenue, which still reached $1.46 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $1.45 billion. Design automation business revenue increased slightly by 3.5% to $1.02 billion, while design intellectual property (IP) business revenue decreased by 17% to $435.1 million. Looking ahead, Synopsys, Inc. expects adjusted earnings per share in the second quarter to be between $3.37 and $3.42, with revenue expected to be between $1.59 billion and $1.62 billion. Analysts previously expected adjusted earnings per share of $3.39 and revenue of $1.6 billion. Snowflake (SNOW.US) exceeded expectations with Q4 performance, strong sales prospects driving growth. Data warehouse giant Snowflake's revenue growth prospects for this fiscal year are better than expected, and optimism for its recently launched artificial intelligence products led to a surge in its stock in after-hours trading. The company's Q4 revenue increased by 27.4% to $9.8677 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $9.5689 billion, with adjusted earnings per share of $0.30, exceeding the average analyst expectation of $0.18 per share. Product revenue in the fourth quarter grew by 28% to $9.433 billion, while analysts' average expectation was $9.158 billion. Snowflake currently has 580 customers whose spending over the past 12 months has exceeded $1 million, up from 542 in the previous quarter. In this quarter ending January 31, the remaining performance obligation (another important growth metric) was $6.9 billion, exceeding the average expected $6.67 billion. eBay (EBAY.US) exceeded expectations with Q4 performance, but dim sales prospects led to a sharp drop in stock price. eBay's Q4 revenue was $26 billion, with earnings per share of $1.25, both exceeding market expectations. In the fourth quarter, eBay's gross merchandise volume (GMV) increased by 4% to $19.3 billion, surpassing the market's expectation of $19.1 billion. By the end of 2024, eBay's active buyer count reached 134 million, also exceeding market expectations. However, strong holiday season performance was overshadowed by weak prospects. eBay expects revenue for the current quarter to be below analysts' expectations, CEO Jamie Iannone attributing this to weak demand in Germany and the U.K. eBay expects revenue for the first quarter of 2025 to be between $2.52 billion and $2.56 billion, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.32 to $1.36. In comparison, analysts' average expectations are revenue of $26 billion and earnings per share of $1.33. Instacart's parent company, Maplebear (CART.US), fell short of expectations for Q4 revenue and Q1 profit guidance. Instacart's Q4 revenue for the fourth quarter increased by 10% year-on-year to $883 million, but fell short of the average analyst expectation of $891 million. Under GAAP accounting standards, net profit was $148 million, an increase of $13 million over the previous year; adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) was $252 million, a 27% year-on-year increase. Gross transaction value, a measure of the value of sales products, was $8.645 billion, an increase of 10% year-on-year. At the same time, the company expects adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter of 2025 to be between $220 million and $230 million, with the midpoint of the forecast falling short of analysts' average expectation of $237.1 million; total transaction value for the first quarter is expected to be between $9 billion and $9.15 billion, with analysts' average expectation being $9 billion.One billion dollars.Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US) Alexa voice assistant receives a major upgrade, embedded with generative AI. Amazon.com, Inc. announced on Wednesday the first major improvement to its Alexa voice assistant since it was launched over a decade ago, embedding it with generative artificial intelligence. Since the launch of Alexa in 2014, Amazon.com, Inc. has invested billions of dollars in the service, hoping to expand it to a range of devices and ultimately drive sales on its main e-commerce website. Panos Panay, the head of devices and services at Amazon.com, Inc., said that this new service is called Alexa+, echoing the advanced names of many high-tech and streaming service products. Important Economic Data and Event Previews 21:30 Beijing time: Initial value of US January durable goods orders (%), revised annualized seasonally adjusted annual rate of US fourth quarter GDP (%), initial claims for unemployment insurance in the week ending February 22 in the US (in thousands). 23:00 Beijing time: Seasonally adjusted US January pending home sales index monthly rate (%). 23:30 Beijing time: US EIA natural gas inventory change as of the week ending February 21 (billion cubic feet). 00:00 the next day Beijing time: US February Kansas Fed manufacturing composite index. 21:15 Beijing time: 2027 FOMC voter, Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks on inflation. 22:15 Beijing time: 2025 FOMC voter, Kansas Fed President Schmiedt speaks on economic issues. 23:00 Beijing time: Fed Governor Brainard speaks on "new activity regulation". 00:45 the next day Beijing time: Fed Governor Bowman speaks on "community banks". 02:15 the next day Beijing time: Cleveland Fed President Mester speaks. 04:15 the next day Beijing time: 2026 FOMC voter, Philadelphia Fed President Harker speaks on economic outlook. Earnings Forecast Friday morning: Dell Technologies, Inc. Class C (DELL.US), HP Inc. (HPQ.US)