Open source securities: The medium to long-term impact of gold revaluation lies in accelerating the fragmentation of the US dollar credit system.

Open Source Securities released a research report stating that Trump's policy direction has turned the revaluation of the value of American gold from an implicit policy concept to a market focus event. If this measure is implemented, in the short term, it may stimulate gold's resistance to inflation and safe-haven demand (during historical quantitative easing periods, the correlation coefficient between gold prices and the Federal Reserve's debt scale reached 0.95). Additionally, it is important to note that if the United States indirectly acknowledges the currency attribute of gold through fiscal technical operations, it may accelerate global central banks' "de-dollarization." The global central bank's net gold purchases in 2024 have reached 1044.6 tons, and the total gold reserves have reached a historical high of 36146.6 tons. This trend will strengthen the positive feedback loop of "official holdings-gold price increase-demand for dollar alternatives," driving gold into a systematic period of value reassessment. The main viewpoints of Open Source Securities are as follows: The short-term solution to the financial dilemma in the United States may exacerbate the crack in the confidence of the US dollar Catalyst: President Trump of the United States claimed that he would audit the gold reserves held in Fort Knox. Fort Knox holds about 56% of the US gold reserves, with the last audit being on September 23, 1974. Trump's policy direction has turned the event of the revaluation of the value of American gold from an implicit policy concept to a market focus. If this measure is implemented, it may stimulate gold's resistance to inflation and safe-haven demand in the short term (the correlation coefficient between gold prices and the Federal Reserve's debt scale during historical quantitative easing periods reached 0.95); in the medium to long term, it may accelerate global central banks' "de-dollarization," triggering a positive feedback loop between central bank net gold purchases in 2024 (1044.6 tons) and gold prices (up 3.8% since February 2025). The revaluation of the value of gold may evolve from accounting technical operations to a catalyst for weakening US dollar credit, but market disturbances should be cautioned against, including congressional authorization obstacles, risks of gold selling, and uncertainties in the fundraising pathways of sovereign wealth funds. The financial dilemma in the United States has led to the innovation of non-traditional asset monetization policies: The US Treasury faces severe financial imbalance, with total liabilities reaching 45.5 trillion US dollars as of September 2024 and net assets at -39.9 trillion US dollars. The Trump administration has proposed an "asset monetization" strategy aimed at generating book profits by reviving the government's assets (such as gold reserves, GSE equity, etc.) to alleviate the pressure of government debt issuance. The core logic of this accounting measure is to enhance fiscal liquidity without directly increasing debt by revaluing asset value or privatization operations, reflecting the fiscal innovation demand induced by US debt difficulties. The potential and resistance of the revaluation of gold reserves coexist The US Treasury holds 8133 tons of gold but accounts for it at the long-term statutory price since 1973 ($42.22/ounce), with a book value of only $11 billion. If revalued at the current market price (about $2900/ounce), its value would soar to $750 billion, creating nearly $740 billion in book profits. Although this measure requires congressional authorization and may raise questions about US dollar credit, recent statements by the Trump administration regarding the audit of the gold reserves in Fort Knox indicate that the policy concept may be one step closer to implementation. Short-term liquidity injection and the weakening of US dollar credit in the medium to long term both stimulate gold premiums The short-term impact of the revaluation of gold's value reflects a "QE-like effect": if the Treasury converts book profits from the Federal Reserve's gold certificates into liquidity by adjusting them, it is equivalent to injecting about $700 billion into the market. Loose liquidity resonating with anti-inflation demand may drive gold prices up. Additionally, as of February 19, 2025, COMEX gold inventories have increased by 73% since the beginning of 2025 (to 1181 tons), and gold leasing rates have risen to 3.5%, to some extent reflecting market expectations of "re-monetizing" gold. The medium to long-term impact of gold revaluation is to accelerate the division of the US dollar credit system If the United States indirectly acknowledges the currency attribute of gold through fiscal technical operations, it may accelerate global central banks' "de-dollarization." The global central bank net gold purchases in 2024 have reached 1044.6 tons, and total gold reserves have hit a historical high of 36146.6 tons. This trend will strengthen the positive feedback loop of "official holdings-gold price increase-demand for dollar alternatives," driving gold into a systematic period of value reassessment. Recommended targets Zhongjin Gold Corp., Ltd (600489.SH), Shanjin International Gold (000975.SZ), Shandong Gold Mining (02099), CHINAGOLDINTL (02099), Benefit target: ZHAOJIN MINING (01818). Risk warning Uncertainty in the path of US asset monetization, resistance to the revaluation of gold value, the possibility of the US Treasury selling gold reserves, and uncertainty in the form of fundraising for US sovereign wealth funds.