Preview of US Stock Market | All three major stock index futures rose, with Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan backing U.S. stocks.
24/02/2025
GMT Eight
Pre-Market Market Trends
1. Before the market opened on February 24 (Monday), the futures of the three major U.S. stock indexes rose. As of the time of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up 0.74%, S&P 500 index futures were up 0.56%, and Nasdaq futures were up 0.48%.
2. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index rose 1.05%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.12%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.09%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index rose 0.07%.
3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil rose 0.14% to $70.50 per barrel, and Brent crude oil rose 0.16% to $74.17 per barrel.
Market News
Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan are bullish on U.S. stocks, believing that despite the underperformance of the S&P 500 index compared to international peers by 2025, the strong earnings outlook and outflow trend in the U.S. stock market will not last. Morgan Stanley's view: Michael Wilson, a strategist at Morgan Stanley, believes that the S&P 500 index is the "highest quality index" with the "best earnings growth prospects." He expects capital to flow back into U.S. stocks, as the current outflow trend is not sustainable. JP Morgan's view: Mislav Matejka, a strategist at J.P. Morgan, believes that despite the weak outlook for large tech stocks, the profit gap between the U.S. and other countries remains large, and it is not advisable to reduce U.S. stock holdings.
Market Focus this Week: Can NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) earnings revive the "AI faith" in U.S. stocks, and January PCE data may alleviate inflation concerns. Due to a series of economic data causing concerns about lower-than-expected U.S. economic growth and high inflation, U.S. stocks performed poorly last week. The S&P 500 index fell about 1.7% last week, and the Nasdaq Composite index and Dow Jones index fell by about 2% and nearly 3%, respectively. In the coming week, NVIDIA Corporation's earnings are expected to be headline news. Earnings from Home Depot, Inc. (HD.US), Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW.US), and Salesforce, Inc. (CRM.US) will also be in focus. In terms of economic data, investors will closely watch the U.S. January PCE price index data to be released on Friday, a preferred inflation indicator for the Fed that will reveal inflation conditions. Meanwhile, market attention will be on the revised annualized real GDP for the fourth quarter of the U.S. to be released on Thursday.
Countdown to a seismic event in U.S. stocks? NVIDIA Corporation's (NVDA.US) earnings report may open the "Pandora's box", as traders hedge against risks in advance. Last Friday, U.S. stocks experienced the largest sell-off in two months, breaking the surface calm of the market. Last week, the ratio of open VIX call options to put options approached the highest level since September 2023, with over a million call options trading on Tuesday. Investors are starting to bet on a resurgence of volatility, as NVIDIA's earnings report, to be released after the U.S. market close on Wednesday, may be just the beginning of a series of fluctuations. While U.S. President Donald Trump's return to the White House and his tariff comments have not yet caused traders to panic, warnings from analysts, from Nomura Holdings, Inc. Sponsored ADR's Charlie McElligott to Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s Scott Rubner, are getting louder.
"Animal spirits" in U.S. stocks go global! European and Asian stocks rise strongly, experts predict: the celebration is just beginning. The "animal spirits" that have driven the surge in the U.S. stock market over the past two years are now going global - some market professionals say this trend may just be beginning. After soaring more than 50% in 2023 and 2024, the S&P 500 index has remained relatively flat since Donald Trump took office. Hot trades are now moving overseas, with investors flocking to European and Asian stock markets, ignoring threats of tariffs, trade wars, and military conflicts. Since Trump took office, the Stoxx 600 index in Europe has risen by 5.8%, while the Nasdaq Golden Dragon index has soared by 18%. In contrast, the S&P 500 index has only risen 0.3% during the same period, and a further 1.7% decline last Friday has further weighed down its performance.
Bank of America warns: Defensive stocks in U.S. stocks "resurrecting" signals that the good times for the U.S. economy may not last. Bank of America Corp stated last Friday that defensive consumer staples and healthcare stocks have outperformed other sectors in the U.S. stock market recently, signaling a warning for the U.S. economy. Data shows that while the S&P 500 index has fallen by 0.6% in the past month, consumer staples (XLP) and healthcare (XLV) sectors have risen by 6.8% and 2.6% respectively during the same period. These two sectors have been the best performers in the S&P 500 index over the past month. Bank of America said that the strong performance of defensive and bond-sensitive stocks is beginning to signal a slowdown in economic activity, which could interrupt the bull market in stocks. The bank's strategists stated that there are risks of "unexpected slowdown in real estate growth, weakening of wealth effect and job growth, inflation affecting consumer confidence, and the U.S. government falling into recession."
U.S. consumer inflation expectations surge, Fed's Goolsbee downplays its impact. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee dismissed a report released last week showing an increase in consumer expectations for future inflation. On Sunday, Goolsbee said in an interview that this number "is not a very good number." Goolsbee said: "But this is just a month's data. You need at least two or three months of data to make it count."
Individual Stock News
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) launches its Robotaxi in Austin, set to compete with Waymo, Uber TechnologiesInc. (UBER.US) is launching a head-to-head competition. Tesla, Inc. will debut its first autonomous driving robotaxi service in Austin, Texas in June. The city is currently the company's headquarters and is seen as an ideal choice for Tesla, Inc. Additionally, autonomous vehicles in Texas only need to register and purchase insurance to drive on public roads, without needing a special permit. The feature of Tesla, Inc.'s robotaxi service is the use of their "unsupervised" fully autonomous driving technology (FSD) to control the vehicles. Initially, the robotaxi fleet will consist of Tesla, Inc.'s own vehicles, likely the Model 3 and Model Y. Passengers will be able to book the autonomous driving service through a mobile app. The booked robotaxi will be able to park in designated areas for convenient passenger pickup.Private equity giant KKR (KKR.US) is investing $400 million to acquire a majority stake in Indian cancer care service provider HCG. Private equity giant KKR (KKR.US) will acquire a majority stake in Healthcare Global Enterprises Ltd. (HCG) from CVC Capital Partners for $400 million, becoming the largest shareholder and sole operator of this Indian cancer care service provider. In a statement to the exchange last Sunday night, HCG said that KKR will acquire up to 54% of the company's shares from CVC at a price of 445 rupees per share. According to the statement, KKR will also publicly purchase more shares from individual shareholders. The statement added that this transaction may allow KKR to hold up to 77% of HCG's shares, thereby giving this private equity firm full control of HCG's operations in India.
Signs of AI boom subsiding? Microsoft Corporation (MSFT.US) suddenly cutting data center leases raises market concerns. Investment bank TD Cowen stated that Microsoft Corporation has begun canceling leases for a large number of data centers in the United States, which may reflect concerns about whether the demand for long-term AI computing exceeds its construction capacity. TD Cowen said in a report that supporters of OpenAI have canceled lease agreements totaling "several hundred megawatts" of capacity, based on channel checks or inquiries with suppliers. TD Cowen also mentioned that Microsoft Corporation has stopped so-called lease qualification conversions, agreements that typically convert into formal leases. TD Cowen wrote that this is a strategy that competitors like Meta Platforms (META.US) have used when deciding to cut capital expenditures.
Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) plans to invest $500 billion in the United States over the next four years and intends to hire 20,000 employees. Apple Inc. announced plans to spend and invest over $500 billion in the United States over the next four years. The tech company also plans to hire approximately 20,000 employees in the next four years, with the majority focusing on research and development, silicon engineering, software development, as well as artificial intelligence and machine learning. As part of this plan, the iPhone manufacturer and its partners will establish a new advanced manufacturing facility in Houston to produce servers that support Apple Intelligence. Apple Inc. stated that this $500 billion commitment includes collaboration with thousands of suppliers in all 50 states, direct employment, Apple Intelligence infrastructure and data centers, company facilities, and Apple TV+ production in 20 states. The company will also double its U.S. Advanced Manufacturing Fund from $50 billion to $100 billion, establish a college in Michigan to train the next generation of American manufacturers, and increase investment in U.S. research and development. Just a few weeks ago, President Donald Trump imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Many of Apple Inc.'s products are assembled in China.
Important economic data and events announcements
21:30 Beijing time: US Chicago Fed National Activity Index Change for January.
23:30 Beijing time: US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for February.
Earnings forecasts
Tuesday morning: Zoom (ZM.US), Agora, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A (API.US)
Tuesday pre-market: Home Depot, Inc. (HD.US), China Yuchai International Limited (CYD.US)