TD Cowen raises global weight loss drug sales forecast to 2030, stating that "Noely" will continue to dominate the market.

TD Cowen predicts that by 2030, with Eli Lilly (LLY.US) and Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B (NVO.US) continuing to dominate, global sales of GLP-1 class weight loss drugs will reach $139 billion, a growth of over 38% from previous forecasts. The company stated that Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B continue to dominate, along with significant interest in GLP-1 from primary care providers and a strong competition in the obesity product line, are part of the reasons for the company raising its estimates. According to TD Cowen, by 2030, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B, providing obesity/diabetes drugs, will compete with their products Mounjaro/Zepbound and Ozempic/Wegovy in the GLP-1 market. Analysts wrote that there is continued demand for Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B weight loss products and rapid adoption of Eli Lilly therapy, "as these products expand indications, nearly perfect clinical trial records and a rich pipeline suggest that this estimate is achievable." Clinical trials are ongoing to test Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B products for other health conditions, and the US FDA has approved semaglutide for reducing major adverse cardiovascular events and tirzepatide for obstructive sleep apnea in overweight or obese populations. However, TD Cowen predicts that by 2030, diabetes and obesity will account for 59% and 41% of GLP-1 sales, respectively, with Eli Lilly holding about 48% market share, slightly higher than Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B's 45%. It is expected that from 2023, the compound annual growth rate of the GLP-1 market will rise by 21%. TD Cowen wrote, "Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B are expected to remain the main drivers and beneficiaries of market growth. However, there is competition in both clinical and commercial areas, as the diabetes and obesity sectors expand, there are hopeful market competitors vying for a place." The company pointed out that other weight loss drug developers, such as Amgen (AMGN.US), Altimmune (ALT.US), Viking Therapeutics (VKTX.US), Regeneron (REGN.US), Astrazeneca PLC Sponsored ADR (AZN.US), Structure Therapeutics (GPCR.US), Metsera (MTSR.US) and Terns Pharma (TERN.US), have released promising preliminary trial data. TD Cowen concluded, "However, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B are still in the best position in the GLP-1 market and are still expected to surpass their peers."