Hong Kong stock market concept tracking | Surge in US gold reserves Gold futures rise due to safe-haven demand (with concept stocks)

Since January 2025, the international gold price has continuously hit new historical highs, with COMEX gold futures once breaking through $2960 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold main contract also reaching 689 yuan per gram. Although discussions about the risks of a short-term pullback in the market have increased, the underlying logic of this round of gold price increases has not been shaken from a structural perspective. Under the pressure of the US debt ceiling, re-evaluating the value of gold reserves seems to be an attractive option, but this will have far-reaching effects on the financial system, including increasing market liquidity and prolonging the reduction process of the Fed's balance sheet. According to Wrightson ICAP's analysis, this proposal may not be seriously considered by the current government, but discussions on this topic have recently heated up. Expectations for President Trump's tariff policy are one of the key factors driving this round of gold price increases. US investors are concerned that tariffs imposed on Canada and Mexico, two major gold importers, may increase the cost of gold imports, prompting a large-scale transfer of inventory from other regions around the world to the US. The shortage and high concentration of demand for LBMA spot gold has led to an increase in spot gold prices, ultimately causing cross-market gold prices to soar during the same period without causing a squeeze on COMEX. Looking ahead, in addition to paying attention to when the COMEX inventory will peak, it is also necessary to closely monitor whether the term structure of the LBMA forward curve continues to flatten, and whether forward swap rates can continue to decline. As long as these key indicators do not show a reversal, the gold price will remain in an upward trend. It is worth noting that the current forward swap rate has dropped to below 0, and there is limited room for further declines, which means that the rally brought about by strong spot demand may have reached its peak. With the weakening of short-term drivers, the market needs to wait for new catalysts to ignite the next wave of trends. Hong Kong stocks related to gold and precious metals: Zijin Mining Group (02899), Shandong Gold Mining (01787), ZHAOJIN MINING (01818), LINGBAO GOLD (03330), CHINAGOLDINTL (02099), WANGUO GOLD GP (03939), LAOPU GOLD (06181), etc.