Cinda: IEA raises the expected increase in global oil demand for 2025.
According to the January 2025 report, IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global crude oil inventory changes in 2025 to be +70.03, +24.43, and -107.82 million barrels per day, respectively, with OPEC being more optimistic about global crude oil demand expectations.
Cinda released a research report stating that according to the January 2025 report, IEA, EIA, and OPEC predicted global crude oil inventory changes in 2025 to be +70.03, +24.43, and -107.82 thousand barrels/day, respectively, compared to the December 2024 predictions of -20.82, +33.87, and +17.36 thousand barrels/day. OPEC is more optimistic about global crude oil demand, with the three major institutions predicting an average inventory change of -4.45 thousand barrels/day in 2025, compared to the average prediction of +10.14 thousand barrels/day in December 2024.
In terms of supply, in January 2025, IEA, EIA, and OPEC predicted a year-on-year increase in global crude oil supply for the first quarter of 2025 to be +137.34, +107.82, and +141.45 thousand barrels/day, respectively, compared to the changes predicted in December 2024 of -35.44, +1.79, and +13.46 thousand barrels/day.
Key points from Cinda include:
Crude Oil Inventory Sector
According to the January 2025 report, IEA, EIA, and OPEC predicted global crude oil inventory changes in 2025 to be +70.03, +24.43, and -107.82 thousand barrels/day, respectively, compared to the December 2024 predictions of -20.82, +33.87, and +17.36 thousand barrels/day. OPEC is more optimistic about global crude oil demand, with the three major institutions predicting an average inventory change of -4.45 thousand barrels/day in 2025, compared to the average prediction of +10.14 thousand barrels/day in December 2024.
EIA and OPEC predicted global crude oil inventory changes in 2026 to be +72.71 and -101.48 thousand barrels/day, respectively, with an average prediction of -14.39 thousand barrels/day. For the first quarter of 2025, IEA, EIA, and OPEC predicted global crude oil inventories to be +59.99, -55.35, and -59.92 thousand barrels/day, with an average change of -18.42 thousand barrels/day, compared to the average changes predicted in December 2024 of -37.79, +18.17, and +8.96 thousand barrels/day.
Crude Oil Supply Sector
In the January 2025 report, IEA, EIA, and OPEC predicted global crude oil supply in 2025 to be 10465.58, 10434.89, and 10411.72 thousand barrels/day, respectively, compared to 2024 crude oil supplies of +173.24, +175.53, and +183.95 thousand barrels/day. For 2026, IEA, EIA, and ...
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