Crazy rise! Gold starts the year hitting new highs repeatedly, just one step away from the $3000 mark.

date
11/02/2025
avatar
GMT Eight
President Trump announced a 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum, exacerbating the increasing uncertainty in the global financial markets and driving gold prices to new highs. Following a nearly 1.7% increase the day before, as of the time of this report, spot gold was trading at $2930 per ounce, continuing to hit historical highs; gold futures were hovering around $2955 per ounce. On February 10, local time, Trump signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imported into the United States. Trump also stated on that day that there would be "no exceptions or exemptions" to this requirement. Trump also mentioned that he would consider imposing tariffs on cars, chips, and pharmaceuticals. As Trump's disruptive measures in trade and geopolitics strengthen the role of gold as a store of value during uncertain times, gold prices have already risen by 11% this year and repeatedly reached new highs. Richard Franulovich, an analyst at Westpac Bank, pointed out that Trump's policies are unpredictable, whether it be imposing tariffs on allies or adversaries, these factors have increased the attractiveness of gold as a safe haven. Trump's statements indicate that the risks and uncertainties in the global financial markets have significantly increased, leading to an increase in investors' demand for safe havens. The market is also trying to understand the potential impact of the Trump administration's policies if they lead to a resurgence of inflation and stifle economic growth, and what implications this may have for U.S. monetary policy. If the Federal Reserve maintains interest rates at high levels for an extended period, it could further pressure demand for gold investments. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will testify before the Senate and House of Representatives on Tuesday and Wednesday to present the semi-annual monetary policy report and answer questions. Powell's remarks at the hearing may provide more clues about the Federal Reserve's rate path. Market participants will closely watch his views on economic prospects, inflation targets, and interest rate policies. Powell had previously stated in January that the Federal Reserve was not in a hurry to further cut interest rates. Analysts expect Powell to emphasize that the resilience of the economy is a key reason why the Federal Reserve is in no rush to further ease rates. With the US economic conditions remaining favorable, Federal Reserve officials also have time to assess the impact of the Trump administration's changes in trade, immigration, and tax policies. Gold price hits new highs 40 times in 2024 The World Gold Council's "Global Gold Demand Trends" report previously showed that driven by continuous strong central bank gold purchases and growth in investment demand, global annual gold demand is expected to reach a record high of 4975 tons in 2024 (including off-market trades). Record high gold prices and demand levels are projected to drive the total global gold demand in 2024 to $382 billion. Central banks worldwide continue to play an important role in gold purchases. Data shows that in 2024, global central bank gold purchases exceeded 1000 tons for the third consecutive year. In terms of gold investment, data shows that global gold investment demand is expected to grow by 25% to 1180 tons in 2024, reaching a four-year high. Louise Street, a senior market analyst at the World Gold Council, points out that gold prices hit new highs 40 times in 2024, once again becoming the focus of global attention. Street stated, "In 2025, we expect central banks' gold purchasing demand to remain dominant, and gold ETF investment demand will be an important force supporting gold demand." "Geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties will be the theme of 2025, further supporting the demand for gold as a wealth preservation and hedging tool." Institutions bullish on gold Many institutions predict that factors such as trade frictions, geopolitical concerns, sustained demand from central banks, and uncertainties in global economic growth will continue to drive gold prices higher this year. UBS recently raised its 12-month gold price forecast to $3000 per ounce. In its report, UBS stated, "Although we recognize that current spot gold prices are higher than our fair value estimate, the enduring appeal of gold as a store of value and a hedging tool against uncertainty has once again been proven." Citigroup has also adjusted its gold price expectations. The bank raised its gold price target for 0-3 months to $3000 per ounce, maintained its 6-12 month target at $3000 per ounce, and raised its average price forecast for 2025 from $2800 to $2900 per ounce. Goldman Sachs has set a gold price target of $3000 per ounce. Goldman Sachs believes that as US policy uncertainty continues to rise, it may drive long-term demand for safe havens from central banks and investors, posing upward risks to the $3000 per ounce gold price target.

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