National Bureau of Statistics interpretation: CPI growth expands in January, PPI decreases year-on-year.

The National Bureau of Statistics released the data on the national CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index) for January 2025 today. Dong Lijuan, Chief Statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, provided an interpretation of the data. In January, due to the Spring Festival factors, the national CPI increased, with a month-on-month increase of 0.7% compared to the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 0.5% compared to the previous month's 0.1%. The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, continued to rise for the fourth consecutive month, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, both larger than the previous month. Due to factors such as the Spring Festival holiday, industrial production was in the off-season in January, leading to a 0.2% month-on-month decrease and a 2.3% year-on-year decrease in the national PPI. The full text is as follows: In January 2025, CPI increased, while PPI decreased year-on-year - Dong Lijuan, Chief Statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, interprets the CPI and PPI data for January 2025 The National Bureau of Statistics released the data on the national CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index) for January 2025 today. Dong Lijuan, Chief Statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, provided an interpretation of the data. I. CPI increase In January, due to the Spring Festival factors, the national CPI increased, with a month-on-month increase of 0.7% compared to the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 0.5% compared to the previous month's 0.1%. The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, continued to rise for the fourth consecutive month, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, both larger than the previous month. From a month-on-month perspective, the increase in service and food prices was the main factor affecting the CPI to rise instead of remain flat compared to the previous month. Service prices increased by 0.9%, with an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous month, affecting a month-on-month increase of approximately 0.37%, accounting for over 50% of the overall CPI increase. During the service sector, the demand for travel and entertainment consumption significantly increased during the Spring Festival period, with airplane tickets, transportation rental fees, tourism, and movie and show tickets rising by 27.8%, 16.0%, 11.6%, and 9.6% respectively, together affecting a month-on-month increase of about 0.28%; due to the increase in domestic workers returning home and an increase in service demand, home services and haircut prices rose by 9.3% and 9.2%. Food prices rose by 1.3%, affecting a month-on-month increase of approximately 0.24%, accounting for over 30% of the overall CPI increase. In terms of food, the combine effect of the Spring Festival and decreased temperatures led to price increases in fresh vegetables, fruit, and aquatic products by 5.9%, 3.3%, and 2.7% respectively. Additionally, influenced by the rise in international gold and crude oil prices, domestic gold jewelry and gasoline prices rose by 3.0% and 2.5% respectively, together affecting a month-on-month increase of about 0.10 percentage points. From a year-on-year perspective, service and food prices had larger increases due to the Spring Festival timing effect, together with the rebound in gasoline prices, contributing to an increase in the year-on-year CPI. Service prices increased by 1.1%, with an increase of 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, affecting a year-on-year CPI increase of approximately 0.42%, higher than the previous month's 0.22 percentage points. Within the service sector, airplane tickets and tourism prices each rose by 8.9% and 7.0%; movie and show tickets, home services, and haircut prices each rose by 11.0%, 6.9%, and 5.8% respectively. Food prices rose by 0.4%, affecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 0.07 percentage points, compared to the previous month's decrease of approximately 0.09 percentage points. In terms of food, pork and fresh vegetable prices rose by 13.8% and 2.4% respectively, together affecting a year-on-year CPI increase of approximately 0.22%; while beef, mutton, edible oil, and grain prices fell by 13.1%, 5.6%, 2.5%, and 1.4% respectively, together affecting a year-on-year CPI decrease of approximately 0.15 percentage points. Industrial consumer goods prices decreased by 0.2%, with the decrease in gasoline prices shrinking from 4.0% in the previous month to 0.6%, reducing its impact on CPI by 0.12 percentage points compared to the previous month; additionally, prices of fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles decreased by 4.6% and 5.8% respectively, while gold jewelry prices rose by 30.0%. According to estimates, in the 0.5% year-on-year change in January CPI, the impact of volatile factors was approximately -0.2 percentage points, and the new impact of price changes this year was approximately 0.7 percentage points. II. PPI decrease year-on-year In January, affected by factors such as the Spring Festival holiday, industrial production was in the off-season, leading to a 0.2% month-on-month decrease and a 2.3% year-on-year decrease in national PPI. From a month-on-month perspective, PPI decreased by 0.2%, expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. In this, the price of production materials changed from being flat to a decrease of 0.2%; the price of living materials changed from a decrease of 0.1% to being flat. During the Spring Festival period, coal supply was secure, with power plants having sufficient coal inventory, leading to a 2.2% decrease in prices in the coal mining and washing industry. Influenced by factors such as holidays and low temperatures, real estate and infrastructure projects were partially halted, resulting in a decline in demand for building materials, with prices in the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry decreasing by 0.9% and non-metallic mineral product prices decreasing by 0.6%. Influenced by fluctuations in international non-ferrous metal prices, prices in the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry dropped by 0.4%. With the rise in international crude oil prices, prices in the domestic petroleum-related industry rose, with prices in the petroleum and natural gas extraction industry increasing by 4.5% and prices in the petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing industry increasing by 1.0%. In the equipment manufacturing sector, prices in computer manufacturing decreased by 0.7% and lithium-ion battery manufacturing prices decreased by 0.6%; aircraft manufacturing prices rose by 1.1%, while prices for complete vehicles for gasoline and diesel cars rose by 0.8% and prices for solar equipment and components manufacturing rose by 0.5%. In the consumer goods manufacturing sector, prices in agricultural and sideline food processing decreased by 0.5% and prices in the textile industry decreased by 0.4%; prices for cultural, educational, sports, entertainment, and recreational products manufacturing rose by 0.3%, and prices for paper and paper products manufacturing rose by 0.2%. From a year-on-year perspective, PPI decreased by 2.3%, the same as the previous month. In this, production material prices decreased by 2.6%, the same as the previous month, and living material prices decreased by 1.2%, narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month. By industry, prices in the non-ferrous metal ore mining and selection industry rose by 18.9%, and prices in the non-ferrous metal industry fellThe prices of smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 9.3%, while the prices of education, culture, sports, and entertainment goods manufacturing industry increased by 6.7%. Among the industries where prices fell, the black metal smelting and rolling processing industry fell by 10.7%, coal mining and washing industry fell by 10.1%, petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing industry fell by 6.2%, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry fell by 4.0%, automobile manufacturing industry fell by 3.1%, non-metallic mineral products industry fell by 3.0%, computer communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry fell by 1.8%, textile industry fell by 1.7%, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry fell by 1.6%, and petroleum and natural gas extraction industry fell by 1.3%. The ten industries mentioned above collectively contributed to a decrease of approximately 2.11 percentage points in the PPI year-on-year, accounting for over 90% of the total decline.According to estimates, the base effect accounted for a drop of about 2.1 percentage points in the year-on-year decline of PPI in January, which was 2.3%. The new impact of price changes this year is estimated to be about -0.2 percentage points. This article is excerpted from the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics; Edited by GMTEight: Huang Xiaodong.