Guolian: eVTOL development drives the growth of the solid-state battery market by hundreds of billions.

Guolian released a research report stating that leading battery company Contemporary Amperex Technology has released solid-state batteries, and has signed a strategic investment and cooperation agreement with Peak Aviation, jointly dedicated to the development of eVTOL aviation batteries. Currently, the economic prosperity of low-altitude eVTOL is continuously increasing, and there is optimism in the solid-state battery industry chain of Contemporary Amperex Technology. It is recommended to pay attention to investment opportunities in the layout of solid-state electrolytes, lithium salts LiTFSI, silicon-carbon negative electrodes/lithium metal, high-nickel ternary, dry electrode equipment, and isostatic pressing equipment. According to calculations, the aftermarket for eVTOL batteries in 2031 is expected to reach 7.8 billion yuan, plus the pre-installed market in 2031, driving the solid-state battery market to a hundred-billion yuan level. Guolian's main points are as follows: Excellent performance helps solid-state batteries become a future trend Solid-state batteries can be divided into polymer, oxide, sulfide, and halide solid-state batteries according to the electrolyte materials. Solid-state batteries have higher energy density, safety, and other performance characteristics than traditional lithium-ion batteries. Currently, the low-altitude economy has entered the industrialization stage of development, with rapid progress in domestic evidence collection. Domestic main manufacturers are expected to reach intensive evidence collection around 2026. The market size of eVTOL in 2023 reached 980 million yuan, and with the accelerated certification of multiple models, the market size is expected to reach 9.5 billion yuan by 2026. On November 14, 2024, EH216-S, the world's first eVTOL flight test with solid-state batteries by EHang Intelligent, marked a major breakthrough in the application of solid-state batteries in the low-altitude economy field. Low-altitude support accelerates the landing of solid-state batteries and drives the billion-dollar incremental market Currently, the energy density of eVTOL batteries is generally between 200Wh/kg and 300Wh/kg, and there are certain limitations in the cruising range. With the first flight of EHang Intelligent's solid-state batteries, cooperation between Contemporary Amperex Technology and Peak Aviation, as well as other solid-state manufacturers layouting in low-altitude areas, it is expected that by 2025, eVTOL will gradually transition to semi-solid-state, officially opening the solid-state battery low-altitude market. For eVTOL, the value of batteries is high, and they are consumables. According to calculations, the aftermarket for eVTOL batteries in 2031 is expected to reach 7.8 billion yuan, plus the pre-installed market in 2031, indicating a hundred-billion yuan market space. Solid-state battery material end: the core is solid-state electrolyte Compared to liquid batteries, the main difference of solid-state batteries lies in the application of solid-state electrolytes or solid-state electrolyte membranes. Polymer solid-state electrolytes have strong processing properties and are favored by the market. The core of solid-state batteries is mainly the electrolyte (main carrier polymer PEO) and LiTFSI lithium salt that reduces the crystallinity of PEO. Currently, the main suppliers of PEO are Liaoning Oxiranchem, Inc., with a capacity of 300,000 tons/year, and Yangzi Petrochemical with a capacity of 200,000 tons/year. Gsp Automotive Group Wenzhou has a 0.5GWh polymer energy storage solid-state battery demonstration line; as for LiTFSI, Jiangsu Ruitai New Energy Materials, Do-Fluoride New Materials, and Zhejiang Zhongxin Fluoride Materials are laying out, Jiangsu Ruitai New Energy Materials LiTFSI has already formed a mass sales. Solid-state battery equipment end: dry electrode and isostatic pressing equipment become key points The production process of polymer solid-state batteries differs from that of liquid batteries mainly in the front-end and mid-end processes. Compared to liquid batteries, the electrolyte film formation process in the front-end process is the core of all-solid-state battery manufacturing; in the mid-end process, isostatic pressing equipment is mainly added. Due to the advantages of higher electrode density and higher ionic conductivity, dry electrodes may become the main method for solid-state film formation. NAKNOR has introduced a dry electrode forming and compositing machine, achieving the integration of electrode film forming and electrode film and current collector compositing, leading in dry electrode equipment. Isostatic pressing equipment has the advantages of ensuring consistent densification of battery stacking and reducing internal resistance, and is expected to solve interface contact issues. Investment advice: pay attention to the leading companies in the layout of solid-state batteries With the rapid development of the low-altitude economy, eVTOL has increasingly higher requirements for batteries in terms of safety, energy density, power density, fast-charging performance, and cycle life. Solid-state batteries are favored in the eVTOL field for their high energy density, high charge and discharge rate, and high safety. It is recommended to focus on Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750.SZ), which has already formed a strategic partnership with Peak Aviation, Do-Fluoride New Materials (002407.SZ) actively laying out LiTFSI, and the dry electrode leader NAKNOR (832522.BJ). Risk warning Technological progress is slower than expected; policy change risks; lower-than-expected demand; commercialization of eVTOL is slower than expected.