Guosen: The AIDC cycle is approaching, and all factories are competing for market share.

Guosen released a research report stating that in recent years, with the rapid development of information technologies such as cloud computing, AI, and big data, the demand for computing power in data centers has shown explosive growth. The number and scale of large models in China have grown rapidly, with daily active users increasing rapidly. According to data from the China Investment Industry Research Institute, it is expected that the Chinese data center market will reach 543.7 billion yuan in 2028, with a future five-year CAGR of 8.83%. Over the past five years, the global data center industry has achieved rapid development through cloud computing, with overall demand in major data center markets significantly increasing, reaching historical peak pre-leasing rates. Guosen's main points are as follows: AI is rapidly developing, entering a new cycle of IDC development In recent years, with the rapid development of information technologies such as cloud computing, AI, and big data, the demand for computing power in data centers has shown explosive growth. Huawei predicts that global AI computing power demand will reach 864ZFLOPS (FP16) by 2030. The increase in intelligent computing power demand will drive a significant increase in the scale of data centers. SemiAnalysis predicts that global data center capacity will increase from 49GW in 2023 to 96GW in 2026, with new intelligent computing center capacity accounting for 85% of the increase. China and the global IDC market are rapidly expanding The number and scale of large models in China have grown rapidly, with daily active users increasing rapidly. At the same time, large models are accelerating towards industry depth, empowering application scenarios. In the context of skyrocketing computing power demand, scarce data and model resources, and the widespread deployment of AI technology, intelligent computing centers have become the new infrastructure for regional AI intelligence. According to data from the China Investment Industry Research Institute, it is expected that the Chinese data center market will reach 543.7 billion yuan in 2028, with a future five-year CAGR of 8.83%. Over the past five years, the global data center industry has achieved rapid development through cloud computing, with overall demand in major data center markets significantly increasing, reaching historical peak pre-leasing rates. According to DC Byte data, as of 2023, the total planned supply of under-construction data centers globally reached 37.8GW, equivalent to twice the current stock. The scale of IDC will continue to grow rapidly in the future. Key companies in the data center sector 1) Equinix (EQIX.US): A leading global player in the data center market, focusing on providing data center hosting and interconnection services. The company plans to add 15,725 cabinets in the next 12 months, resulting in $476 million in recurring revenue for the company by 2026. 2) VNET Group, Inc. Sponsored ADR (VNET.US): A leading provider of carrier-neutral and cloud-neutral data center services in China, expected to deliver 297MW of capacity in base-type IDCs in the next 12 months, equivalent to double the current capacity. Calculated based on the current average price of base-type IDC, it is estimated to bring incremental revenue of $2.257 billion to the company. 3) GDS-SW (09698): A leading developer and operator of high-performance data centers in China and Southeast Asia, assuming the company will deliver 66,405 square meters of capacity in the next 12 months. Calculated based on the current average price of IDC, the corresponding incremental annual recurring revenue for the company is estimated to reach 1.62 billion yuan. Risk factors Risks include AI applications not meeting expectations, lower-than-expected market demand, intensified industry competition, macroeconomic fluctuations, technology development falling short of expectations, and valuation risks.