Guosen Securities: Maintains "recommended" rating for GEELY AUTO (00175), main brand new energy profits turning point has appeared.

Minsheng Securities released a research report stating that it maintains a "recommended" rating for GEELY AUTO(00175). The company's new energy brand momentum is on the rise, with improved efficiency and cost reduction in technology, and the accelerated profitability of new energy through scale. Adjusting profit forecasts, the expected revenues for 2024-2026 are 224.78/289.69/338.83 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 90.2/141.0/174.5 billion yuan, and EPS of 0.93/1.40/1.73 yuan (2024 excluding the non-recurring gains from the sale of HORSE shares). The main points of Minsheng Securities are as follows: Organizational changes help the integration of internal resources within the group and focus on the interests of listed companies. The company, after going through a period of high-speed growth from 2015 to 2018 (sales CAGR 41.4%) and a period of transformation and exploration from 2020 to 2023, has entered a new phase of accelerated growth. In September 2024, Geely Holding Group issued the Taizhou Declaration, announcing five major initiatives: "strategic focus, strategic integration, strategic synergy, strategic stability, and strategic talent", indicating the company's focus on resource integration. The establishment of the second position of independent new energy vehicles, multiple brands are striving upwards. With the listing of the Galaxy E5, the upgrade of the Geometry distribution and integration into Galaxy, the Minsheng Securities believes that the positioning of the entire Geely new energy brand is clearer. The main brand new energy profitability turning point has appeared, and the growth contribution of fuel vehicles going overseas is contributing to profitability.