Cui Dongshu: In 2024, China's car imports of 700,000 units decreased by 12% year-on-year, marking three consecutive years of negative growth.

Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, stated that the import volume of cars in China has been decreasing by an average of around 8% per year since 2017, reaching only 80,000 units in 2023. In December 2024, car imports decreased by 12% year-on-year, with 70,000 units imported. In December 2024, there were 6,700 imported cars, a 16% decrease year-on-year but a 12% increase compared to November, making it an unusual and significant drop in December. With the rise of domestic cars and the acceleration of localization of international brands, car imports have been persistently low in recent years, experiencing negative growth for three consecutive years from January to December. There is greater pressure for growth in imported cars in December. The top 10 countries with the highest number of imports in December 2024 were Japan with 34,854 vehicles, Germany with 13,317 vehicles, the United States with 9,400 vehicles, the United Kingdom with 2,722 vehicles, Slovakia with 2,629 vehicles, Sweden with 1,644 vehicles, Mexico with 1,269 vehicles, Austria with 551 vehicles, Hungary with 419 vehicles, and South Korea with 241 vehicles. Japan saw the largest year-on-year increase in December, followed by Germany, Mexico, Poland, and Belgium. In January-December 2024, the countries with the highest number of imported cars were Japan with 227,870 vehicles, Germany with 192,648 vehicles, the United States with 109,356 vehicles, Slovakia with 62,412 vehicles, the United Kingdom with 45,078 vehicles, Sweden with 22,172 vehicles, Austria with 10,779 vehicles, Hungary with 8,062 vehicles, Mexico with 8,018 vehicles, and South Korea with 4,759 vehicles. The countries with the largest increase in imports this year were Japan, Hungary, China, Belgium, and France. As the Chinese automobile industry continues to grow stronger, the transformation to electrification is changing the market demand structure, leading to a continuous decline in demand for fuel cars, including imported fuel cars. With increasingly complex international relations, it is necessary to prepare for more complex import patterns to maintain a reasonable scale of imported cars. I. Overall trend of imported cars in China 1. Characteristics of car import growth After reaching a peak of 1.43 million units in 2014, imported cars began to decline. Import growth slightly stabilized and improved in 2016-2017 but has been declining since 2018. In 2023, the import volume sharply decreased, reaching only 800,000 units for the whole year, a 10% decrease year-on-year. Currently, the monthly import volume for 2024 remains around 50,000 units, showing a significant decline. In December 2024, 67,000 cars were imported, a 16% decrease year-on-year but a 12% increase compared to November, a rare and significant decline in December. From January to December, 700,000 cars were imported, a 12% decrease year-on-year. With the rise of domestic cars and the acceleration of localization of international brands, car imports have been continuously low in recent years, showing negative growth for three consecutive years from January to December, making it seven consecutive years of negative growth if fluctuations are smoothed out. The car import market stabilized in 2021, with a total import of 930,000 units, remaining stable year-on-year. In 2022, the import volume reached 880,000 units, a 5% decrease year-on-year, a significant decrease compared to 2020. In 2023, the import volume further decreased to 799,000 units, a 10% decrease year-on-year. In response to current complex international relations, the scale of car imports was increased in July and August to prevent risks, leading to a reduction in inventory pressure after reduced imports from September to December. 2. Monthly trend of whole vehicle imports The import of passenger cars has returned to a normal trend after the pandemic. Looking at the monthly trend, imports in recent years have shown a recovery and growth trend similar to that of domestic cars. In 2024, a normal seasonal trend was observed, with imports from January to April weaker than the same period in 2023. Imports rebounded in May, and from June to August, recovery was good. Imports from February to August in 2024 showed continued strength, but from September to December, there was a sharp decline, with significant pressure on high-end consumption. Many dealers are waiting for tax increases to reduce existing inventory. 3. Characteristics of the structure of whole vehicle imports The import car markets from 2017 to 2019 were relatively stable. In 2023, whole vehicle imports reached 800,000 units, showing a significant decline compared to 2022. From January to August 2024, the import of passenger cars slowed down, further reflecting pressure from September to December. Currently, the import of passenger cars in December is lower than demand, traditional truck imports are weaker, and the inventory reduction is evident. Passenger cars account for 98% of the structure of imported cars, with 305,000 sedans imported from January to December 2024, accounting for 44%; 226,000 imported four-wheel-drive SUVs, accounting for 33%; and 16,800 unlisted new energy vehicles, accounting for 2%. The performance of commercial vehicle imports in 2024 was average, especially with an increase in truck imports at the beginning of the year, but little strength in tractor trailers and medium-sized trucks from May to December. Passenger car imports account for 98% of all car imports, with pickups in the light truck category further increasing the proportion of passenger cars. This year, the import share of four-wheel-drive SUVs has increased. 4. Characteristics of the structure of imported new energy vehicles In recent years, imported new energy passenger cars have shown continuous high growth, but in 2024, there was a sharp decline. In December, imports of pure electric passenger cars decreased by 48% to 795 units, and plug-in hybrids decreased by 73% to 561 units. From January to December, imports of pure electric passenger cars decreased by 48% to 16,768 units, while plug-in hybrids decreased by 73% to 10,149 units, indicating weak performance for imported new energy passenger cars. The traditional fuel market for passenger cars experienced a significant decline, with diesel trucks making a comeback in the truck category while the proportion of gasoline trucks decreased in line with traction vehicle demand. Imports of high-end gasoline pickups in 2024 showed slow performance. Recently, the market for new energy passenger cars has shown relatively strong performance, with the market for imported pure electric vehicles also performing relatively well. In December, the share of imported new energy vehicles reached 2%, and from January to December, the import share of new energy passenger cars reached 3%, with a slight decrease in pure electric cars compared to last year, indicating that fuel passenger cars continue to dominate. Gasoline cars account for a high proportion in the truck category, with diesel trucks performing well. 5. Characteristics of imported passenger cars by engine displacement Imported passenger cars are concentrated in the 2-liter and below gasoline models, with good resilience in the 3-4 liter displacement category. Imported passenger cars are concentrated in the 2-liter and below gasoline models, accounting for 66% of the total imported gasoline cars in December. In recent years, the import of 2-liter displacement cars has... Sedans have become the absolute main force. The sales of large-displacement imported cars with a strong trend in the early stage of 2.5-3 liters have decreased, and the decline in the fourth quarter of this year is significant. The proportion of 2-2.5 liters has noticeably rebounded, and the market's trend towards high-end is not strong.6-8 months, large displacement vehicles of 4 liters or more have temporarily increased, with import tariffs being a noticeable factor for risk hedging. However, demand is weak, and imports of large displacement vehicles are expected to fall in 9-12 months. II. Automobile Import Market Pattern 1. Import characteristics by country The main countries for imported passenger cars in China are still Japan, Germany, and the United States. Recently, imports from Slovakia have seen a significant decline. 2. Monthly trend of whole vehicle imports Pressure on imported cars in December is significant. The top 10 countries with the highest imports in December 2024 were Japan with 34,854 vehicles, Germany with 13,317 vehicles, the United States with 9,400 vehicles, the United Kingdom with 2,722 vehicles, Slovakia with 2,629 vehicles, Sweden with 1,644 vehicles, Mexico with 1,269 vehicles, Austria with 551 vehicles, Hungary with 419 vehicles, and South Korea with 241 vehicles. The countries with the highest year-on-year increases in December compared to the previous year were Japan with 1,141 vehicles, Germany with 782 vehicles, Mexico with 508 vehicles, Poland with 107 vehicles, and Belgium with 37 vehicles. From January to December 2024, the countries with the highest import of vehicles were Japan with 227,870 vehicles, Germany with 192,648 vehicles, the United States with 109,356 vehicles, Slovakia with 62,412 vehicles, the United Kingdom with 45,078 vehicles, Sweden with 22,172 vehicles, Austria with 10,779 vehicles, Hungary with 8,062 vehicles, Mexico with 8,018 vehicles, and South Korea with 4,759 vehicles. The countries with the highest import increases this year were Japan with 4,172 vehicles, Hungary with 2,809 vehicles, China with 2,683 vehicles, Belgium with 661 vehicles, and France with 311 vehicles. 3. Characteristics of new energy vehicle imports Before 2019, the import volume of new energy vehicles was high, but in 2021, the decline in pure electric vehicles due to the production of Tesla domestically was significant. The decline in pure electric vehicles in 2021 due to the production of Tesla domestically was significant. However, in 2022-2023, the development of new energy vehicles was good, leading to more companies importing new energy vehicles. The import of new energy vehicles from main countries in 2024 has significantly slowed down, and domestically produced vehicles are more competitive. The trend of importing new energy passenger cars from Italy this year is strong. III. Automobile Market Sales Pattern 1. Overall sales of imported vehicles Due to the strong presence of Chinese domestic car companies, the performance of imported car sales has been consistently weaker, and they have performed weaker than the trend of domestic luxury car markets. In 2021, import car sales reached 940,000 units, a 6% decrease compared to 2020. In 2022, the sales of imported cars were 840,000 units, a large decrease of 10% compared to 2021, and relatively weaker than the performance of domestic cars. Finally, in 2023, sales started to grow positively, reaching 910,000 units, an 8% increase. From January to December 2024, the number of compulsory insurance data for imported cars was 800,000 units, a 12% decrease compared to the previous year. Due to the promotion of the low base, the retail sales of imported cars in January-December this year are generally normal, but the future pressure remains significant. The sales trend of imported cars has drastically declined, recently dropping to 80,000 units. 2. Characteristics of imported car brands In recent years, the sales of ultra-luxury imported cars have been continuously growing, but there was a significant 12% decline from 2023, accelerating in January-December 2024. Bentley's performance is relatively strong. The overall trend of Maserati and Rolls-Royce has been sluggish, and the overall weakness of ultra-luxury cars reflects the temporary slowdown in purchasing power of the super high-end consumer group. However, high-end brands such as Ferrari and Lamborghini performed well in December. Currently, imported cars are mainly supported by the demand for luxury cars, while non-luxury imported cars have shrunk dramatically. The proportion of luxury cars among imported cars has significantly increased. Lexus's import retail sales in 2024 increased by 0%, showing good performance. BMW, Audi, and Land Rover performed relatively well, while Porsche's recent performance was weak. Joint venture brand imported cars are rapidly shrinking, with brands like Toyota, Volkswagen, and Subaru experiencing drastic declines in imported cars. 3. Characteristics of regional changes in imported ultra-luxury car brands Overall, the demand in the imported car market is weak, with pressure on regions like Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing, and Chengdu, which are traditional affluent areas, having higher pressure in the ultra-luxury imported car market. New energy cars have little impact on ultra-luxury cars, as the affluent want to reflect their status. Due to the special business and identity characteristics of ultra-luxury cars, the overall market demand is not good. 4. Characteristics of regional changes in luxury cars Overall, the demand for luxury cars in both domestic and imported markets is weak, with traditional affluent areas like Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing, Hangzhou, and Tianjin facing greater pressure in the luxury car market.