Goldman Sachs: The market expects a 50% probability of President Trump imposing a 10% tariff on copper in the first quarter.

Goldman Sachs said on Monday that the likelihood of the United States imposing a 10% tariff on copper by the end of the first quarter of this year is about 50%, based on the prices in the copper market. Analysts at the investment bank stated in a client report that this estimate is similar to their own subjective probability of a 50% chance of a 10% tariff on copper being imposed by the end of the year. Goldman Sachs also pointed out that pricing in the oil market indicates a close to 40% possibility of the US imposing a 25% tariff on Canadian goods, including oil. However, they subjectively believe that the actual likelihood of a 25% tariff on Canadian goods being imposed by the end of this year is 15%. The investment bank believes there is a 10% chance of a 10% effective tariff being imposed on gold in the next 12 months. The institution stated that gold's status as a financial asset makes it possible for it to be exempt from widespread tariff imposition. Over the past six weeks, the amount of gold held in approved warehouses on the New York Mercantile Exchange has increased by a third as market participants seek delivery to hedge against potential tariffs.