HK Stock Market Move | Dairy stocks rebound today, Goldman Sachs says the number of newborns in 2024 exceeds expectations, and the pressure on the infant formula industry may be alleviated.

Dairy stocks rebounded today, as of press time, YOURAN DAIRY (09858) rose by 5.84% to HK$1.63; CH MODERN D (01117) rose by 3.61% to HK$0.86; CHINA FEIHE (06186) rose by 3.3% to HK$5.32; MENGNIU DAIRY (02319) rose by 1.05% to HK$15.4. On the news front, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that there were 9.54 million births in 2024. Goldman Sachs stated that the number of newborns exceeded the bank's expectations and United Nations predictions, mainly due to the economic recovery surpassing expectations post-pandemic and the dragon year effect. In the base scenario, the bank expects the year-on-year decline in the population aged 0-4 to significantly narrow to 5%/4% in 2025-2026, and the population in this age group may start to grow positively by 2033, indicating that the sales pressure in the infant formula milk powder industry may ease. EB SECURITIES pointed out that dairy products are gradually entering the Spring Festival stocking stage, benefiting from the continuous destocking efforts in the previous period, with channel inventory levels in the second half of the year returning to relatively reasonable levels. Price competition has continued to ease compared to the first half of the year, with the terminal prices of ambient temperature liquid milk gradually recovering and the discount level decreasing compared to the first half of the year. Costs have also decreased in the second half compared to the first half. Dairy companies have set more rational growth targets for this Spring Festival and the whole year of 2025, with more cautious cost spending and higher profit requirements.