BOCOM INTL: Mainland China's automobile exports are expected to increase by 19.3% year-on-year in 2024. Caution is advised in regards to the export growth rate to Russia.

BOCOM INTL released a research report stating that, according to the latest data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, mainland China's automobile exports are expected to reach 5.859 million vehicles by 2024, an increase of 19.3% year-on-year. Due to disruptions caused by EU policies, the export of new energy vehicles from mainland China is expected to reach 1.284 million vehicles in 2024, an increase of 6.7% year-on-year. The report mentions that considering that the overall sales volume in the Russian market has already recovered to the level of 2021, with mainland Chinese cars holding a market share close to 60% in Russia, the bank believes that the export growth rate to Russia in 2025 needs to be cautiously viewed. Looking ahead to 2025, the bank believes that mainland fuel vehicle exports are expected to maintain a growth trend, but uncertainties remain for new energy vehicle exports due to unfavorable external changes, with future localization production becoming a main strategic approach for mainland Chinese car companies to enter the European market.