This week focuses on Trump's inauguration! "Trump coin" takes the lead, will more policies stir up market waves?
20/01/2025
GMT Eight
(MS.US)(GS.US)(JPM.US)(TSLA.US)60
(AAPL.US)(AMZN.US)(MSFT.US)Alphabet(GOOGL.US)Companies are releasing their financial reports one after another, marking the official start of the fourth quarter earnings season. Overall, the reported company performances are better than expected. According to FactSet data, the profits of S&P 500 index component companies increased by 12.5% compared to the same quarter last year, higher than the 11.5% expected last week.Citigroup's U.S. stock strategist, Scott Kronert, wrote in a report to clients last Friday, "Although it's still early, this is a good start. We expect total returns to exceed the average level and remain optimistic about profit prospects."
Earnings season will continue this week, with 43 S&P 500 companies set to release their earnings, with the focus on large tech giant Netflix. However, with Trump's inauguration on Monday, it is expected that political news will flood in, and in the coming weeks, whether earnings will truly be the focus of people's attention will be tested.
Kronert said, "We expect that policy noise will increase this week with the inauguration on Monday and plans for some executive orders. In the short term, the market will have to deal with increasing fiscal, trade, and monetary policy uncertainty, even if (earnings) reports are solid."
At least one negative factor in the market has eased off recently. In the past week, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds dropped by nearly 20 basis points to 4.61%, after climbing steadily earlier, putting pressure on the stock market. The discussion surrounding Trump's policies potentially pushing up bond yields again will be a key factor to watch in the coming week.
Traders are still preparing for the first few days of Trump's second term, as he has reiterated his focus on core priorities such as tax cuts and tariffs, which could lead to a prolonged trade war. Investors are also concerned about how immigration actions will affect the U.S. economy, and are worried about escalating political tensions with GEO Group Inc, as Trump has targeted some traditional U.S. allies such as Canada, Mexico, and Europe.