Hong Kong stock market concept tracking | Coking coal prices close to the bottom, institutions optimistic about the attractiveness of dividend asset allocation (with concept stocks)

As of January 17th, the active contract price for coking coal futures was 1175.5 yuan per ton, up 8.49% from last week, and down 35.29% year-on-year. According to Mysteel data, the total demand for coking coal in 2025 is about 572 million tons, with the corresponding coking coal cost curve position at around 1000 yuan per ton. The current coking coal price may be close to the bottom area. EB SECURITIES released a research report stating that after experiencing a decline in coking coal prices and stock prices, some coking coal companies now have a price-to-book ratio of less than 1.0, demonstrating a cost-effective configuration. CITIC SEC released a research report stating that in the past two weeks, the coal sector's leading companies have undergone significant adjustments, with those with large adjustments mostly being targeted by institutional investors in the previous period. However, based on estimated performance expectations, the valuation and dividend levels of leading companies still remain attractive. Once the bottom of the coal price is confirmed and dividend expectations stabilize, it is expected that leading companies in the sector will continue to attract incremental funds seeking dividend opportunities. If economic growth exceeds expectations in the future, there may also be trading opportunities driven by expected improvements in the sector. Based on the performance expectations for 2024, CITIC SEC research recommends focusing on: 1) Leading companies with historically leading dividend levels and low volatility; 2) Companies with a high proportion of long-term coal contracts and minimal performance volatility; 3) State-owned enterprises that are trading below net asset value, or benefiting from market value management efforts. Hong Kong-listed companies related to the coal sector include: China Coal Energy (01898), China Shenhua Energy (01088), YANCOAL AUS (03668), SOUTHGOBI (01878), Yankuang Energy Group (01171), etc.