Super 24-hour attack! Barclays: Trump's first batch of executive orders may trigger market fluctuations.

Barclays analysts say that soon after taking office, US President-elect Donald Trump will push forward his policy agenda, which may cause a period of turbulence in the financial markets. Investors will pay particular attention to tariff policies, and whether Trump will take a more hardline stance than his previous term. Although he is expected to impose a 20%-25% tariff on nearly half of goods imported from China, as trade shifts to other countries, importers will seek alternative goods, weakening the effectiveness of tariffs. "The impact of tariffs in 2018 is highly dispersed. Currently, the average tariff on all US imported goods is only 2%," Barclays analyst Ajay Rajadhyaska said in a report on January 17th. The incoming government seems determined to avoid repeating past mistakes. Media reports suggest that on his first day in office, Trump will issue over 100 executive orders, compared to President Biden who issued 160 executive orders throughout his four-year term, and Trump who issued 220 executive orders in his first term. In terms of trade policy, media reports also indicate that Trump may invoke the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to immediately impose tariffs, to enhance the strength of his measures. This strategy avoids the mandatory investigation and comment period stipulated by Section 232 of the Trade Act of 1974, which Trump used to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum. The next Trump administration may face legal challenges to these orders, with courts potentially issuing temporary injunctions to stop the imposition of new tariffs. Barclays said, "If the IEEPA is indeed invoked in trade, the market should view it as a strong statement of intent, indicating that the US is planning to impose tariffs on a large scale and will not be weakened. If national emergency powers are not invoked, it can at least provide the market with a few months of breathing space to clarify the outline of tariff policy." For investors, the second key issue is Trump's immigration policy and the scale of deporting undocumented immigrants. Barclays predicts that compared to the 2-2.5 million workers annually from 2022 to 2024, immigration will only increase by about 500,000 workers per year. Facing a tough re-election campaign, Biden restored the "Remain in Mexico" policy in June last year to curb immigration. Barclays stated that when a settlement bill is drafted for government operations and shows how much funding will be allocated for immigration enforcement, investors will have a better understanding of Trump's deportation policy. "We will focus on whether the government will try to terminate DACA, which protects undocumented immigrants who arrived in the US as children. Similarly, if the government temporarily freezes all immigrants, whether legal or illegal, the market should view it as a tougher stance, likely squeezing labor supply even more."