China Securities Co., Ltd.: AI application in B-end commercialization landing, OA/ERP as the entry-level platform will benefit first.

China Securities Co., Ltd. released a research report stating that the domestic AI application traffic and monthly active users continue to grow, with growth rates significantly outperforming overseas products. The domestic AI large model intensive update, domestic models and AI applications are accelerating landing, and the trend of the AI industry chain continues to rise. Optimistic about the AI application as a new generation of productivity tools landing in the B-end commercial, OA/ERP as an entry-level platform will be the first to benefit; optimistic about the development of the underlying AI computing power industry under government support, recommend paying attention to domestic AI computing power industry chain-related targets. China Securities Co., Ltd.'s main points are as follows: In December 2024, the global AI product web traffic slightly decreased, while domestic remained high-speed growth In December 2024, the total web traffic of the Top 20 AI products globally reached 8636.36M, a year-on-year decrease of 1.65%, marking the first decline in 12 consecutive months (the last time was in December 2023). Among them, ChatGPT's traffic decreased by 2.66% year-on-year, possibly due to factors such as the December Christmas holiday affecting user visit demand. Looking at domestic AI products, in December 2024, the total web traffic of the Top 20 reached 581.08M, a year-on-year growth of 21.77%, still maintaining a high-speed growth trend. Nanmi AI search (formerly 360 AI search) ranked first in domestic traffic, and it is the only domestic product in the global top five in terms of traffic; DeepSeek's traffic grew by 160.63% year-on-year due to the promotion of the high-performance open-source model V3 update. In December 2024, the monthly active users of AI applications APP both domestically and abroad increased synchronously, with Talkie surpassing C.AI From the application side, in December 2024, the total monthly active users of the Top 20 AI products in the world reached 796.73M, a year-on-year increase of 7.35%; the total monthly active users of the Top 20 AI products APPs in China reached 165.93M, a year-on-year increase of 17.65%, with a significantly higher growth rate. In terms of specific applications, Bytes DouBao and MiniMax Talkie AI (offshore applications) ranked second and fourth globally in terms of traffic in December 2024, with significantly higher growth rates than other top five traffic products; At the same time, Talkie has overtaken C.AI (28.18 million monthly active users) with 29.77 million monthly active users, becoming the world's largest role-playing AI application, and for the first time surpasses overseas local applications in China. The domestic AI industry is accelerating its development, with multiple models intensively updating Recently, domestic large models and AI applications have further accelerated their development, with multiple models releasing simultaneously. On January 15th alone, Iflytek Co., Ltd. released the first large model, Xunfei Xinghuo Deep Inference Model X1, with deep thinking and reasoning capabilities trained based on the national computing power platform, and landed in demand scenarios such as education and medical; MiniMax released and open-sourced the new MiniMax-01 series of models, achieving large-scale linear attention mechanisms, which can efficiently process the world's longest context of 4 million tokens, 32 times that of GPT-4o and 20 times that of Claude-3.5-Sonnet, supporting the landing of Agent applications with stronger memory capabilities; DeepSeek formally released its official App, fully launched on iOS/Android, with only an 8MB installation package for a smooth experience. The next day, Step Reasoner mini, self-developed by Jieyue Xingchen, was launched for reasoning, ushering in a new player in the domestic reasoning model; Zhipu also released the new end-to-end model GLM-Realtime, achieving low-latency video understanding and speech interaction. The DouBao emotional voice large model is about to go online, and is expected to fully launch the DouBao App's real-time voice call function According to exclusive reports from the Silicone Star Pro official account, DouBao is about to release the latest real-time voice large model and will fully launch the real-time voice calling function of its DouBao App based on this model. Currently, the DouBao App has tested the latest capabilities on a small scale, and some users have already seen the updated real-time call interface in the DouBao App. It is reported that this real-time voice model is the latest emotional voice large model that DouBao is about to launch, with test results surpassing GPT-4o, having low latency characteristics, supporting smooth user interruptions; at the same time, the latest voice model of DouBao shows more powerful and realistic performance in the Chinese scene compared to before. Domestic AI application traffic and monthly activity continue to grow, with growth rates significantly outperforming overseas products; at the same time, domestic large models and AI applications are intensively updated, with multiple reasoning models already released, and the DouBao emotional voice large model and the DouBao App's real-time voice calling function are also about to go online. The domestic large models and AI applications are showing an accelerating development trend, with the certainty of demand for upstream computing power further strengthened, and the commercialization on the downstream application side is expected to accelerate. Investment advice: The domestic models and AI applications are accelerating landing, and the trend of the AI industry chain continues to rise Optimistic about AI applications as a new generation of productivity tools landing in the B-end commercial, OA/ERP as an entry-level platform will be the first to benefit; optimistic about the development of the underlying AI computing power industry under government support, recommend paying attention to domestic AI computing power industry chain-related targets. Risk warning: (1) Macroeconomic downturn risk: The downstream of the computer industry involves various industries, and under macroeconomic pressure, if industry IT expenditure falls short of expectations, it will directly affect the computer industry demand; (2) Bad debt risk of accounts receivable: Most companies in the computer industry rely on project-based contracts, which require payment after acceptance, and a longer payment cycle by downstream customers may increase bad debts and may further lead to asset impairments; (3) Intensified industry competition: The demand in the computer industry is relatively certain, but intensified competition on the supply side may change the industry landscape; (4) Impact of international environmental changes: The escalation of international trade tensions, the continuous pressure from the United States on Chinese technology, may have an impact on companies with a high proportion of overseas income.