Open Source Securities: The total box office of the Spring Festival archives in 25 years is expected to hit a new high, focusing on the producer/investor and cinema line companies.

Open Source Securities released a research report stating that in recent years, the position of the Chinese New Year box office has gradually increased among all periods of the year, with the proportion of annual box office increasing from 10% in 2018 to 19% in 2024. Considering the high market expectations for the 2025 Chinese New Year box office films, as well as the earlier promotion period, films targeting different user groups are expected to expand the coverage of the Chinese New Year box office, leading to an increase in the number of viewers. Under a neutral assumption, it is estimated that the total box office for the 2025 Chinese New Year box office will be 85.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, and is expected to reach a historical high. Pay attention to the elasticity brought by the 2025 Chinese New Year box office films to the relevant content producers, film investment companies, and theater chains. The main points of Open Source Securities are as follows: The status of the Chinese New Year box office has increased, and themes and word-of-mouth have become core considerations for the audience. In 2024, the Chinese New Year box office achieved a record high of 80.2 billion yuan, with the number of viewers being the core drive (total viewers reached 163 million, a year-on-year increase of 26.4%), and the enthusiasm for watching movies has risen, possibly due to the overall improvement in film quality, the diversification of film genres, and the penetration of lower-tier markets. In recent years, the position of the Chinese New Year box office has gradually increased among all periods of the year, with the proportion of annual box office increasing from 10% in 2018 to 19% in 2024. In terms of themes, comedies and fantasies are the most frequent genres, well-known IPs and family-friendly films and sequels perform well at the box office. In terms of city distribution, the penetration of lower-tier markets continues to increase, with third- and fourth-tier cities accounting for 53.5% of the box office in 2024, making lower-tier cities an important driver of box office growth. In terms of audience preferences, storylines and word-of-mouth are still important factors influencing movie ticket purchases, with good word-of-mouth being a key determinant of high box office performance. Combining mythology, animation, martial arts, comedy, and other top new releases, the 2025 Chinese New Year box office may set a new record. In the 2025 Chinese New Year box office (January 28, 2025, to February 4, 2025, a total of eight days), six films are scheduled to be released on New Year's Day, including (1) "Feng Shen Part Two: The Fire of Xiqi": Produced by Beijing Jingxi Culture & Tourism, mythology and epic themes; (2) "Ne Zha: The Naughtly Child Makes Waves": Produced by Enlight Media, animation theme; (3) "The Legend of the Condor Heroes: The Great Hero": Produced by China Film Co., Ltd., and Hengdian Entertainment, martial arts theme; (4) "Detective Tang 1900": Produced by Wanda Film Holding and CHINA RUYI, the previous installments have performed well in the spring season. (5) "Operation Dragon": Produced by Bona Film Group, the "Operation" series has both good word-of-mouth and high box office performance, and is the only main theme film in the Chinese New Year box office; (6) "Boonie Bears: Back to the Wild": Produced by Fantawild Group, a family-friendly film, and the IP series has been landing in the Chinese New Year box office for several years. Open Source Securities points out that considering the high market expectations for the 2025 Chinese New Year box office films, as well as the earlier promotion period, films targeting different user groups are expected to expand the coverage of the Chinese New Year box office, leading to an increase in the number of viewers. Under a neutral assumption, it is estimated that the total box office for the 2025 Chinese New Year box office will be 85.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, and is expected to reach a historical high. Pay attention to the elasticity that Chinese New Year box office films may bring to the relevant producers, film investment companies, and theater chains. In terms of targets: Shanghai Film (601595.SH) is highly recommended, with potential beneficiaries including Wanda Film Holding (002739.SZ), Beijing Enlight Media (300251.SZ), Beijing Jingxi Culture & Tourism (000802.SZ), Bona Film Group (000802.SZ), Hengdian Entertainment (603103.SH), Omnijoi Media Corporation (300528.SZ), among others. Risk warning: Chinese New Year box office may not meet expectations; the risk of films that have already been scheduled for release being withdrawn.