Huachuang Securities: The passenger turnover volume of airlines listed in December all exceeded the level of 2019. The load factor of Spring Airlines (601021.SH) reached 90.8%, leading the industry.

High-frequency data tracking: On the first day of the Spring Festival travel rush (January 14), domestic air passengers reached 1.85 million, a year-on-year decrease of 1%, an increase of 23% compared to 2019; the passenger load factor was 81%, unchanged from last year and an increase of 2 percentage points compared to 2019; the average domestic airfare (including fuel) decreased by 16% compared to last year, a decrease of 2% compared to 2019. Note: The Spring Festival data is compared on a lunar calendar basis each year. I. December airline data analysis: 1. Overall, Juneyao Airlines' overall RPK exceeded 39.9% compared to 2019, while Spring Airlines exceeded 22.9% compared to 2019. December: ASK exceeded 2019: Juneyao Airlines (37.3%)>Spring Airlines (18.8%)>China Eastern Airlines (6.0%)>Air China (2.6%)>China Southern Airlines (0.1%); RPK exceeded 2019: Juneyao Airlines (39.9%)>Spring Airlines (22.9%)>China Eastern Airlines (10.5%)>China Southern Airlines (4.0%)>Air China (0.2%); January-December cumulative: ASK exceeded 2019: Juneyao Airlines (37.3%)>Spring Airlines (26.1%)>China Eastern Airlines (9.9%)>Air China (7.1%)>China Southern Airlines (5.4%); RPK exceeded 2019: Juneyao Airlines (36.3%)>Spring Airlines (27.0%)>China Eastern Airlines (11.0%)>China Southern Airlines (7.4%)>Air China (5.0%). 1) Domestic routes: Spring Airlines' ASK exceeded 54% compared to 2019, and Juneyao Airlines exceeded 19.9% compared to 2019. December: ASK exceeded 2019: Spring Airlines (54.0%)>Juneyao Airlines (19.9%)>China Southern Airlines (8.2%)>China Eastern Airlines (7.1%)>Air China (6.1%); RPK exceeded 2019: Spring Airlines (54.9%)>Juneyao Airlines (21.5%)>China Southern Airlines (11.9%)>China Eastern Airlines (11.4%)>Air China (4.7%); January-December cumulative: ASK exceeded 2019: Spring Airlines (58.2%)>Juneyao Airlines (29.6%)>Air China (19.9%)>China Eastern Airlines (17.9%)>China Southern Airlines (16.0%); RPK exceeded 2019: Spring Airlines (57.8%)>Juneyao Airlines (30.3%)>China Eastern Airlines (19.1%)>China Southern Airlines (18.5%)>Air China (17.9%). 2) International routes: Juneyao Airlines' ASK exceeded 113.4% compared to 2019, and China Eastern Airlines exceeded 2.6% compared to 2019. December: ASK compared to 2019 recovery: Juneyao Airlines (213.4%)>China Eastern Airlines (102.6%)>Air China (95.6%)>China Southern Airlines (83.8%)>Spring Airlines (72.0%); RPK compared to 2019 recovery: Juneyao Airlines (236.6%)>China Eastern Airlines (107.1%)>Air China (90.7%)>China Southern Airlines (87.7%)>Spring Airlines (77.3%); January-December cumulative: ASK compared to 2019 recovery: Juneyao Airlines (177.9%)>China Eastern Airlines (95.3%)>Air China (85.0%)>China Southern Airlines (82.7%)>Spring Airlines (72.3%); RPK compared to 2019 recovery: Juneyao Airlines (171.3%)>China Eastern Airlines (95.7%)>China Southern Airlines (83.5%)>Air China (81.8%)>Spring Airlines (72.8%). 3) Regional routes: China Eastern Airlines' PRK exceeded 42.7% compared to 2019, and Juneyao Airlines exceeded 21.8% compared to 2019. December: ASK compared to 2019 recovery: China Eastern Airlines (132.9%)>Juneyao Airlines (112.4%)>Air China (105.3%)>China Southern Airlines (92.7%)>Spring Airlines (18.2%); RPK compared to 2019 recovery: China Eastern Airlines (142.7%)>Juneyao Airlines (121.8%)>China Southern Airlines (105.4%)>Air China (103.5%)>Spring Airlines (19.2%); January-December cumulative: ASK compared to 2019 recovery: China Eastern Airlines (104.0%)>Juneyao Airlines (100.3%)>Air China (90.7%)>China Southern Airlines (74.6%)>Spring Airlines (33.9%); RPK compared to 2019 recovery: China Eastern Airlines (103.6%)>Juneyao Airlines (102.5%)>Air China (85.5%)>China Southern Airlines (78.1%)>Spring Airlines (34.9%). 2. Passenger load factor: Spring Airlines' load factor was 90.8%, leading the industry. December: Spring Airlines (90.8%, year-on-year +1.6%, month-on-month +0.4%, compared to 2019 +3.0%)>China Southern Airlines (84.6%, year-on-year +5.2%, month-on-month -0.3%, compared to 2019 +3.1%)>China Eastern Airlines (83.5%, year-on-year +7.5%, month-on-month -0.8%, compared to 2019 +3.4%)>Juneyao Airlines (82.4%, year-on-year -0.1%, month-on-month -0.7%, compared to 2019 +1.6%)>Air China (77.7%, year-on-year +2.3%, month-on-month -1.6%, compared to 2019 -1.9%). January-December: Spring Airlines (91.5%, year-on-year +2.1%, compared to 2019 +0.7%)>Juneyao Airlines (84.6%, year-on-year +1.8%, compared to 2019 -0.6%)>China Southern Airlines (84.4%, year-on-year +6.3%, compared to 2019 +1.6%)>China Eastern Airlines (82.8%, year-on-year +8.4%, compared to 2019 +0.8%)>Air China (79.8%, year-on-year +6.6%, compared to 2019 -1.6%). 3. Fleet size: In December, the net increase in aircraft for the five listed airlines was 12. By the end of December, the fleet size of the five airlines had increased by 2.6% compared to the end of 2019. II. Investment advice: continue to recommend the aviation internal demand, pro-cyclical sector for optimal selection.1) During the Spring Festival travel rush, on the first day of January 14th, the number of civil aviation passenger trips was 2.0818 million, an increase of 0.71% compared to the same period in 2024, and a 25.3% increase compared to the same period in 2019. 2) Aviation, as a pro-cyclical and elastic direction of domestic demand, has: a) Early cyclical attributes. Previously, we reported on the relapse of the bull market performance from 2008 to 2010, with three transmission mechanisms of fiscal acceleration -> aviation stock performance. b) Supply logic is continuously strengthening. 3) Continued optimism about the price elasticity of Air China Limited; valuation elasticity of Juneyao Airlines; benefits expected for China Express Airlines from the issuance of bonds, sustainable operating turning point has arrived; Spring Airlines, with its low-cost core competitive advantage, will maximize "traffic-cost-price". Risk warning: Economic downturn, significant increase in oil prices, and significant depreciation of the RMB. Attachment: Operating data of key companies in December 2024 1) China Southern Airlines: December passenger load factor 84.6%, YoY +5.2pts, YoY +3.1pts compared to 2019 December: ASK YoY +3.3%, +0.1% compared to 2019; domestic YoY -1.8%, international YoY +20.0%; RPK YoY +10.1%, compared to 2019 +4.0%; domestic YoY +3.4%, international YoY +32.5%; Passenger load factor 84.6%, +5.2 percentage points YoY, +3.1 percentage points compared to 2019, domestic 84.4%, +4.3 percentage points YoY, international 85.3%, +8.0 percentage points YoY. 1-12 months: ASK YoY +14.7%, compared to 2019 +5.4%; domestic YoY +2.4%, international YoY +82.9%; RPK YoY +23.9%, compared to 2019 +7.4%; domestic YoY +11.3%, international YoY +93.4%; Passenger load factor 84.4%, +6.3 percentage points YoY, +1.6 percentage points compared to 2019, domestic 84.7%, +6.8 percentage points YoY, international 83.5%, +4.6 percentage points YoY. 2) Air China Limited: December passenger load factor 77.7%, YoY +2.3pts, YoY -1.9pts compared to 2019 December: ASK YoY +10.7%, compared to 2019 +2.6%; domestic YoY +2.7%, international YoY +33.0%; RPK YoY +14.1%, compared to 2019 +0.2%; domestic YoY +5.0%, international YoY +41.9%; Passenger load factor 77.7%, +2.3 percentage points YoY, -1.9 percentage points compared to 2019, domestic 79.5%, +1.8 percentage points YoY, international 74.4%, +4.6 percentage points YoY. 1-12 months: ASK YoY +19.2%, compared to 2019 +7.1%; domestic YoY +2.7%, international YoY +100.4%; RPK YoY +29.9%, compared to 2019 +5.0%; domestic YoY +12.4%, international YoY +125.5%; Passenger load factor 79.8%, +6.6 percentage points YoY, -1.6 percentage points compared to 2019, domestic 81.5%, +7.0 percentage points YoY, international 76.2%, +8.5 percentage points YoY. Note: National Aviation Data includes Shandong Airlines, calculated based on the 2019 method. 3) China Eastern Airlines Corporation: December passenger load factor 83.5%, YoY +7.5pts, YoY +3.4pts compared to 2019 December: ASK YoY +6.9%, compared to 2019 +6.0%; domestic YoY -3.8%, international YoY +35.7%; RPK YoY +17.3%, compared to 2019 +10.5%; domestic YoY +4.9%, international YoY +52.4%; Passenger load factor 83.5%, +7.5 percentage points YoY, +3.4 percentage points compared to 2019, domestic 84.2%, +6.9 percentage points YoY, international 82.3%, +9.0 percentage points YoY. 1-12 months: ASK YoY +21.2%, compared to 2019 +9.9%; domestic YoY +1.3%, international YoY +117.7%; RPK YoY +34.9%, compared to 2019 +11.0%; domestic YoY +13.5%, international YoY +144.6%; Passenger load factor 82.8%, +8.4 percentage points YoY, +0.8 percentage points compared to 2019, domestic 84.0%, +9.0 percentage points YoY, international 80.3%, +8.8 percentage points YoY. 4) Spring Airlines: December passenger load factor 90.8%, YoY +1.6pts, YoY +3.0pts compared to 2019 December: ASK YoY +13.1%, compared to 2019 +18.8%; domestic YoY +0.9%, international YoY +101.4%; RPK YoY +15.1%, compared to 2019 +22.9%; domestic YoY +2.7%, international YoY +109.9%; Passenger load factor 90.8%, +1.6 percentage points YoY, +3.0 percentage points compared to 2019, domestic 91.1%, +1.5 percentage points YoY, international 89.8%, +3.6 percentage points YoY. 1-12 months: ASK YoY +16.1%, compared to 2019 +26.1%; domestic YoY +7.7%, international YoY +81.3%; RPK YoY +18.8%, compared to 2019 +27.0%; domestic YoY +9.8%, international YoY +95.Four percentSeat occupancy rate 91.5%, up 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, up 0.7 percentage points compared to 2019, with domestic rate at 92.2%, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, and international at 88.6%, up 6.4 percentage points year-on-year. Juneyao Airlines: Seat occupancy rate in December was 82.4%, down 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, up 1.6 percentage points compared to 2019. December: ASK up 15.4% year-on-year, up 37.3% compared to 2019; domestic down 5.6% year-on-year, international up 158.9% year-on-year; RPK up 15.2% year-on-year, up 39.9% compared to 2019; domestic down 4.9% year-on-year, international up 173.7% year-on-year; Seat occupancy rate of 82.4%, down 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, up 1.6 percentage points compared to 2019, with domestic rate at 84.8%, up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, and international at 76.9%, up 4.2 percentage points year-on-year. January to December: ASK up 17.3% year-on-year, up 37.3% compared to 2019; domestic up 2.5% year-on-year, international up 141.1% year-on-year; RPK up 19.9% year-on-year, up 36.3% compared to 2019; domestic up 5.8% year-on-year, international up 160.5% year-on-year; Seat occupancy rate was 84.6%, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, down 0.6 percentage points compared to 2019, with domestic rate at 87.1%, up 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, and international at 76.0%, up 5.7 percentage points year-on-year.