Overnight US stocks | U.S. December CPI meets expectations, three major indices "celebrate," S&P 500 index achieves largest single-day increase since November last year.
16/01/2025
GMT Eight
On Wednesday, the US December CPI met expectations, with all three major indices surging, and the Nasdaq ending its five-day losing streak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by over 700 points, the S&P 500 recorded its largest single-day gain since November 2024.
[US Stocks] At closing, the Dow rose by 703.27 points, or 1.65%, to 43,221.55 points; the Nasdaq gained 466.84 points, or 2.45%, to 19,511.23 points; the S&P 500 index increased by 107.00 points, or 1.83%, to 5,949.91 points. Meta (META.US) and NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) rose by over 3%, while Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) surged by 8%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index closed up 0.97%, Alibaba Group Holding Limited Sponsored ADR (BABA.US) rose by 0.9%, DouYu International Holdings Ltd. Sponsored ADR (DOYU.US) surged by over 13%, and Li Auto, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A (LI.US) fell by 2%.
[European Stocks] The German DAX30 index rose by 329.31 points, or 1.63%, to 20,590.72 points; the UK FTSE 100 index increased by 96.49 points, or 1.18%, to 8,298.03 points; the French CAC40 index gained 50.92 points, or 0.69%, to 7,474.59 points; the Euro Stoxx 50 index rose by 54.28 points, or 1.09%, to 5,034.75 points; the Spanish IBEX35 index increased by 148.64 points, or 1.26%, to 11,900.74 points; and the Italian FTSE MIB index gained 521.41 points, or 1.48%, to 35,646.00 points.
[Asia-Pacific Stock Market] The Nikkei 225 index was slightly down, the Indonesian Jakarta Composite Index rose by 1.77%, and the South Korean KOSPI index was slightly down.
[Cryptocurrency] Bitcoin broke the $100,000 mark, rising by over 3.5% intraday.
[Gold] Spot gold rose by 0.64% to $2,694.55 per ounce; COMEX gold futures rose by 1.39% to $2,719.70 per ounce.
[Oil] Light crude oil futures for February delivery on the NYMEX rose by $2.54 to close at $80.04 per barrel, up by 3.28%; Brent crude oil futures for March delivery on the London ICE rose by $2.11 to close at $82.03 per barrel, up by 2.64%. WTI crude oil futures hit $80 per barrel for the first time since August last year, reaching a new high since July last year, as new sanctions by Western countries against Russia began to impact oil supply, while US inventories tightened. Buyers of Russian oil are increasingly turning to other supplying countries, with some countries including India stating that they will ban sanctioned oil tankers. Shipping costs have soared, and the US spot pricing model has changed. This has added momentum to the already strong oil prices at the beginning of this year. In contrast to the widespread expectation of a substantial excess of global crude oil inventories, US crude oil inventories have declined for eight consecutive weeks to their lowest level since April last year. However, according to Dennis Kissler, Senior Vice President of BOK Financial Securities, the rise in oil prices is likely to be capped at $81 per barrel, as futures prices have been hovering near overbought levels on the 14th.
[Forex] The US dollar index measuring against six major currencies fell by 0.17% to close at 109.089 in the forex market as of the New York market close. At the end of the New York forex market, 1 euro exchanged for $1.0293, lower than the previous trading day's $1.0298; 1 pound exchanged for $1.2231, higher than the previous trading day's $1.2200. 1 US dollar exchanged for 156.46 Japanese yen, lower than the previous trading day's 157.94 Japanese yen; 1 US dollar remained unchanged at 0.9127 Swiss francs; 1 US dollar exchanged for 1.4329 Canadian dollars, lower than the previous trading day's 1.4365 Canadian dollars; 1 US dollar exchanged for 11.1543 Swedish kronor, lower than the previous trading day's 11.1796 Swedish kronor.
[Macro News]
US December core CPI slightly lower than expected, raising expectations of interest rate cuts. The US December non-seasonally adjusted CPI rose to 2.9% year-on-year, marking the third consecutive month of rebound to a new high since July 2024, in line with market expectations and up from 2.7%. The US December non-seasonally adjusted core CPI recorded 3.2%, a new low since August 2024, in line with market expectations of staying at 3.3%. The food index rose by 0.3% in December, following a 0.4% increase in November. Four out of six major grocery store food indexes rose in December. The grain and bakery products index rose by 1.2% after a 1.1% decline in November. The meat, poultry, fish, and egg index rose by 0.6% in December, with the egg index rising by 3.2%. Other household food index rose by 0.3% in December, and the dairy and related products index rose by 0.2%. The energy price index rose by 2.6% in December, with the gasoline price index rising by 4.4%. (Before seasonal adjustment, the gasoline price in December fell by 1.1%.) The natural gas price index rose by 2.4% in December, and the electricity price index rose by 0.3%.
Federal Reserve Beige Book: Overall price increases expected to continue in 2025. The Federal Reserve Beige Book reported that overall prices have increased to varying degrees, with most districts reporting moderate growth in sales prices but also instances of prices remaining flat or declining, especially in retail and manufacturing. Input costs have also risen, with respondents mentioning increases in insurance prices, particularly in healthcare insurance. Respondents mentioned that prices in most districts were stable or showed slight increases, but most expect prices to continue rising into 2025.It is expected that prices will continue to rise by 2025, with some people pointing out that an increase in tariffs may further drive up prices.OPEC: With the relative stability of economic growth in major economies, it is expected that the global economy will continue to maintain strong growth next year. OPEC pointed out in its monthly report that with the relative stability of economic growth in major economies, it is expected that the global economy will continue to maintain robust growth of 3.2% in 2026. This is slightly higher than the forecast growth rate of 3.1% in 2025, reflecting the continued and sustainable expansion of the global economy. In the OECD economies, it is expected that the US economy will further grow steadily, while the moderate growth rates of the Eurozone and Japan are expected to gradually improve. In non-OECD economies, major oil-consuming countries such as China and India, as well as other developing economies in Asia, are expected to maintain strong growth, significantly contributing to the expansion of the global economy. In addition, OPEC expects inflation to continue to normalize by 2026, providing support for further adjustments to monetary policy in major economies. Despite widespread uncertainty, it is expected that the service sector will drive global economic growth, while the industrial sector is expected to gradually recover. Supported by continued strong economic activity in Asia and other non-OECD countries, global oil demand is expected to grow at a healthy level of 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026.
British media: Canada is exploring measures such as defense procurement and mining alliances with the United States to ease Trump's tariff policies. According to the Financial Times, the Canadian Minister of Energy stated that Canada is willing to purchase more US military equipment and establish a deeper critical minerals alliance with this southern neighbor. The current Canadian government is attempting to persuade President-elect Trump not to impose high tariffs. Jonathan Wilkinson stated that Canada is eager to establish closer ties with the United States to support the incoming president's priorities of strengthening US energy independence and addressing global challenges. This may include purchasing submarines and other military equipment, as well as developing more critical mineral projects in Canada to replace Asian products in the US supply chain. However, he warned that if President Trump, who is set to be inaugurated soon, threatens to impose a 25% tariff on all Canadian goods exported to the US, Ottawa will respond with "tit-for-tat" measures.
Outgoing Treasury Secretary Warns: Extending Trump's tax policies may disrupt the US market. Outgoing US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that extending the 2017 Republican tax policies of the next government could potentially disrupt financial markets and worsen the already challenging US fiscal outlook. "The expected fiscal path under current budget policies is simply not sustainable, taking no action or actions that exacerbate expected deficits could have terrible consequences," Yellen stated on Wednesday, possibly in her final speech in office. Yellen stated in a speech at the New York Association for Business Economics that extending Trump's first-term tax policies "could weaken our nation's strength, from the resilience of the US debt market to the value of the US dollar, and even potentially trigger a debt crisis in the future." She also stated that such "misguided economic decisions" will impact long-term economic outlook and burden future generations.
Stock News
CPI outperformed SEC lawsuits, Tesla, Inc. leads the surge in automotive stocks. On Wednesday, Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) closed up 8%. The US core CPI increase was lower than expected, leading to a market rebound. This could make the Federal Reserve more likely to cut interest rates, helping more people afford new cars. Rivian (RIVN.US), General Motors Company (GM.US), and Ford Motor Company (F.US) all saw decent gains, rising 4.5%, 1.5%, and 1.7% respectively, but Tesla, Inc. led the way. Investors were not troubled by Musk's new lawsuit with the SEC. In addition, Barclays analyst Dan Levy raised Tesla, Inc.'s target stock price from $270 to $325, maintaining a hold rating, but the target price is still below the current price. Levy stated that since the November 5th election, the stock price has "diverged from fundamentals." As of Wednesday, Tesla, Inc.'s stock price has risen by about 70% (about $177) since the election, during which time analysts' average target price for Tesla, Inc. stock has increased from around $235 to about $317 (up about $82).
NVIDIA Corporation's market value skyrocketed to $3 trillion, creating history on Wall Street and continuing to push up. Since ChatGPT ignited the AI frenzy, NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) has increased its market value by $3 trillion within two years, setting a record that no other stock has achieved in such a short time. However, for this chipmaker, the current situation is changing. Competitors and customers are intensifying efforts to grab a larger share of the AI chip market. The explosive revenue growth in the industry is slowing down. The Biden administration is beginning to restrict the sale of NVIDIA Corporation's most advanced chips overseas, but it is not yet clear how the incoming Trump administration will handle this. "I'm not worried that we've seen the top of NVIDIA Corporation yet," said Kevin Mahn, chief investment officer at Hennion & Walsh Asset Management, "there will be more growth, although we should also expect more volatility. The AI revolution is long and challenging."
Major Bank Ratings
JPMorgan: Lowered the target price of Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR.US) from $37 to $36