China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association: By the end of December, the accumulated inventory of silicon wafers was basically exhausted, and it is expected that the silicon wafer production in January will be around 46GW.

The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association issued a document analyzing the supply and demand situation of the silicon industry in December. By the end of December, the accumulated inventory of silicon wafers had been basically exhausted, with the remaining part needed for normal turnover by enterprises. There was a serious shortage of G10L small-sized silicon wafers, followed by the G12 series, while G12R supply was relatively sufficient. Downstream battery companies reduced production during the holidays, leading to a weakening demand for silicon wafers. Silicon wafers will be replenished in January. According to the production plan of silicon wafer companies, it is expected that the silicon wafer production in January will be around 46GW, basically flat compared to the previous month. Although silicon wafer inventory will start to accumulate again in January, the overall situation has significantly improved compared to last year. Improved product profitability has motivated silicon wafer companies to have enough production enthusiasm, with integrated enterprises gradually resuming production becoming a trend. In the medium to long term, the supply and demand relationship of silicon wafers continues to improve. According to Antaike statistics, in December 2024, industrial silicon continued to accumulate inventory, with supply exceeding demand by 30,000 tons. In December, the supply of industrial silicon (including 97 silicon and recycled silicon) was around 410,000 tons, while the demand (including export forecasts) was around 380,000 tons. By the end of December, the inventory of the industrial silicon industry was around 950,000 tons (with warehouse receipts as of December 31 at 254,000 tons), still at a high level. It is forecasted that in January 2025, with the addition of new capacity in the northern region, production will increase; in the southern region, the start-up will remain at a low level, resulting in a slight decrease in production. It is estimated that the overall domestic industrial silicon production will increase to around 375,000 tons in January, with a total supply of 410,000 tons (including 97 silicon and recycled silicon). The supply of downstream organic silicon monomers continues to increase, maintenance reduction plans for polysilicon are being implemented, reducing production, and aluminum alloy plants are operating steadily. It is estimated that the overall domestic demand will be around 320,000 tons, with exports reaching 60,000 tons in January 2025. It is predicted that in January 2025, supply will increase while demand will decrease, with supply exceeding demand by about 30,000 tons. According to Antaike statistics, in December 2024, the cumulative balance of supply and demand for polysilicon was about 160,000 tons. The supply of polysilicon (including import forecasts) was approximately 106,600 tons, while the demand for polysilicon (including export forecasts) was about 105,000 tons. By the end of December, the cumulative inventory of polysilicon was around 400,000 tons, with almost no inventory growth for the month. It is expected that the balance of supply and demand for polysilicon will soon reach a turning point. According to the production schedule of upstream and downstream companies for January 2025, there are still expectations for a downward adjustment in polysilicon production, with the supply expected to decrease to around 98,000 tons. Some regions may see a return to lower production rates in January, leading to a slight increase in direct demand for polysilicon to around 101,000 tons, and the monthly supply and demand relationship is expected to reverse, as polysilicon is set to transition from an accumulation state to a destocking phase. On the supply side, the actual supply of silicon wafers was 45.91GW. Battery production in December was 46GW, a decrease of 4.17% from the previous month. The export volume of silicon wafers in December was approximately 3GW, and the apparent demand for silicon wafers was about 49.46GW. Based on supply and demand balance calculations, the net absorption of inventory in December was around 3.55GW.