Concept tracking of Hong Kong stocks | Saudi Arabia raises February crude oil prices. Long-term optimism for oil transportation prosperity (with concept stocks)

Saudi Arabia will raise oil prices for Asian buyers next month, a sign that the world's largest oil-exporting country may see supply tightness in its largest market after OPEC+ recently postponed its production increase plans. According to a price list seen by Bloomberg, state-owned oil producer Saudi Aramco has set the price of its main Arab Light crude oil at a premium of $1.50 per barrel above the regional benchmark price for February. This increase is 60 cents, while Bloomberg's survey of traders and refiners predicted 10 cents. In the first quarter of 2025, oil prices are expected to remain relatively high, with U.S. shale oil and South American offshore oil expected to continue increasing production. Coupled with the recovery in crude oil demand compared to 2024, the IEA predicts that global crude oil demand growth in 2025 will be 1.1 million barrels per day, higher than 840,000 barrels per day in 2024, potentially stimulating a recovery in oil transportation demand. Guotai Junan's research report stated that the geopolitical impact on oil prices may weaken in the next two years, as the world enters a period of increased oil production. The industry expects OPEC+, South America, and North America to gradually increase production, driving growth in crude oil trade. It is expected that future oil transportation supply and demand will be better than expected, with options for oil price declines. Market expectations are for a low bottom, dividend support for valuation limits, and a more attractive risk-reward ratio, with a focus on changes in geopolitical situations and opportunities for contrarian timing. EB SECURITIES' research report stated that crude oil ship dismantling is expected to offset the release of shipping capacity, and demand recovery is expected to forge a long-term prosperous oil transportation industry. The current amount of crude oil ship dismantling has not yet begun to increase rapidly, partly because the dismantling cycle often lags behind the aging cycle of ships, and partly because oil-exporting countries sanctioned due to geopolitical influences introduce a large number of aging oil tankers. With the arrival of the dismantling cycle and the withdrawal of capacity from sanctioned countries, it is expected that the amount of crude oil ship dismantling will gradually offset the influx of new shipping capacity. Overall, the mismatch between supply and demand for crude oil tankers is quite certain, with the supply of VLCCs from 2024 to 2026 being lower than the recovery in demand, and the oil transportation supply and demand balance is expected to remain tight, with freight prices expected to continue to rise. Hong Kong-listed oil transportation related stocks: COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation (01138): COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation announced plans to gradually increase investment in CLNG, and the steadily growing scale of the stable return LNG business will continue to thicken the company's profit foundation. It is expected that oil transportation supply and demand may be better than expected, prompting oil price decline options. Maintains a "Hold" rating. The company is a leader in the industry with excellent operating capabilities, and is expected to continue to achieve higher than industry average period rental levels. The company's VLCC fleet size is expected to decrease on a year-on-year basis, and the prosperity of oil transportation in refined oil is expected to decline year-on-year. The market expects pressure on the results in Q4 2024, and the market expectations are already quite full. In addition, the company is seizing opportunities to gradually increase the size of the LNG fleet, currently controlling 48 vessels, with 41 vessels to be delivered. The LNG business contributed nearly 800 million yuan in net profit in 2023, and will continue to thicken the company's profit foundation with the delivery of new ships.