Guotai Junan: The infrastructure of hydrogen refueling stations is gradually improving, and global sales of fuel cell vehicles will continue to increase.

Guotai Junan Securities released a research report stating that according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), as of September 2024, more than 50 countries and regions have issued hydrogen energy strategies. The number of global hydrogen energy projects has reached 1,572, which is seven times higher than in 2020. The investment in global clean hydrogen energy projects has also reached 75 billion US dollars, more than four times higher than in 2020. At the same time, global demand for hydrogen energy is increasing. The IEA report predicts that by 2050, global demand for hydrogen energy will reach 520 million tons per year, accounting for 13% of the total global final energy consumption. With the continuous advancement of hydrogen energy strategies in various countries, fuel cell technology, storage and transportation technology, and hydrogen refueling station infrastructure will continue to improve, leading to a continuous growth in global sales of fuel cell vehicles. As industrialization accelerates, the consumption of fossil fuels exacerbates global warming and extreme climate issues, driving the development of renewable clean energy as a global trend. Hydrogen energy, as a renewable and zero-emission energy source, is considered the "ultimate energy source" of the 21st century, with wide applications across multiple industries, becoming a key direction for global energy transformation. In the current context, the development of hydrogen energy has become a consensus among major global economies. Thanks to the support of hydrogen energy policies by governments worldwide and the emphasis of companies on the development of green energy transformation, coupled with the continuous emergence of new entrants, the electrolysis equipment market maintains a rapid growth rate. According to statistics from the IEA and Frost & Sullivan, from 2018 to 2023, global electrolyzer shipments increased from 140MW to 1908.2MW, with a compound annual growth rate of 68.6%. Among them, alkaline electrolyzer shipments increased from 114.8MW to 1412.1MW, with a compound annual growth rate of 65.2%, and PEM electrolyzer shipments increased from 25.2MW to 496.1MW, with a compound annual growth rate of 81.5%. As global countries accelerate the construction of electrolysis hydrogen production capacity, global electrolyzer shipments are expected to continue to grow rapidly, with global electrolyzer shipments expected to reach 102,534.1MW by 2030, including 62,736.2MW for alkaline electrolyzer shipments and 39,797.9MW for PEM electrolyzer shipments. In the future, as various countries continue to advance their hydrogen energy strategies, fuel cell technology, storage and transportation technology will improve, and hydrogen refueling station infrastructure will continue to improve, leading to a continuous growth in global sales of fuel cell vehicles. Based on the projected fuel cell vehicle sales for major countries in 2024 and their respective national promotion plans, it is estimated that in 2024, Japan, the United States, China, South Korea, and Germany will have hydrogen vehicle sales of 919 units, 497 units, 11,271 units, 3,511 units, and 305 units respectively, with global hydrogen vehicle sales reaching 16,502 units. By 2030, Japan, the United States, China, South Korea, and Germany are estimated to have hydrogen vehicle sales of 419,935 units, 611,493 units, 614,654 units, 88,913 units, and 119,758 units respectively, with global hydrogen vehicle sales reaching 1,854,753 units. Risk warning: Geopolitical risks, industry policy failures, technological cost reductions falling below expectations.