Outlook for CICC's 2025 Spring Festival Travel and Spring Festival Tourism: Steady Growth

CICC released a research report stating that it is optimistic about the longer Spring Festival holiday this year driving the OTA platform. The 2025 Spring Festival travel rush is set to kick off on January 14, 2025. The recent national Spring Festival television and telephone conference released data predicting the overall cross-regional population flow during the Spring Festival travel season. In addition, major OTA platforms have also released their 2025 Spring Festival travel forecast reports. In 2025, New Year's Eve is included as a statutory holiday, increasing the holiday to 8 days. Based on current data, the longer holiday allows people to return home and vacation at the same time, with strong demand for both domestic and cross-border travel. CICC's main points are as follows: Predicted steady growth in overall cross-regional population flow during the 2025 Spring Festival travel season According to Xinhua News Agency, the 2025 national Spring Festival television and telephone conference predicted that the overall cross-regional population flow during the 2025 Spring Festival travel season will reach 9 billion person-times, a 7% increase over the previous year; railway and civil aviation passenger traffic are expected to exceed 510 million person-times (5% YoY) and 90 million person-times (8% YoY), respectively. "Segmented" Chinese New Year, high proportion of parent-child trips This year's 8-day Spring Festival holiday allows people to have more relaxed planning between visiting relatives and vacationing. Many working people choose a "2-day holiday for 11 days off" or "4-day holiday for 13 days off" to further extend the holiday. Major OTA platforms have mentioned that traveling with family during the Spring Festival is a major trend this year. Ctrip predicts that the proportion of parent-child families will increase to 49% in the "2025 Spring Festival Travel Market Forecast Report", with an order volume increasing by 75% compared to the same period in 2024. Air ticket prices fall, stimulating the release of domestic and cross-border travel demand Flight Butler predicts that the average economy class air ticket price for domestic routes during the 2025 Spring Festival travel season will decrease by 2.2% year-on-year. FlightAI predicts that overall domestic air ticket prices during the Spring Festival this year will decrease by about 5% compared to the same period last year, but still higher than before the epidemic. Outbound ticket prices have also dropped, with price reductions exceeding 5% in all regions except Latin America. The decline in air ticket prices has promoted travel demand, with Fliggy showing that bookings for hotels, flights, and package tours on its platform have significantly exceeded the same period last year, while Qunar stated that international flight and hotel bookings during the Spring Festival period have more than doubled year-on-year. Benefiting from policy dividends, a significant increase in inbound tourism bookings Benefiting from the newly implemented "240" transit visa policy and the ongoing expansion of the "visa-free circle" since 2024, Ctrip's inbound tourism orders during the Spring Festival period have increased by 203% year-on-year, with South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Japan, and other countries with visa-free access to China being the main sources of tourists on Ctrip. Valuation and recommendations It is optimistic about the OTA platform being driven by the longer Spring Festival holiday this year, especially in the context of the traditional tourism supply chain iteration and the background of the inbound and outbound tourism policy dividends. TRIP.COM-S (09961) and TONGCHENGTRAVEL (00780) as leading OTA platforms may benefit significantly. Risk warning: Macroeconomic consumption pressure, geopolitical risks, exchange rate fluctuations.