This week's market focus: The release of the US December non-farm payrolls and the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting.
06/01/2025
GMT Eight
As the first full week of 2025 arrives, the market is seeking direction after the absence of the "Santa Claus rally". Investors will focus on upcoming important economic data releases, as well as signals that may come from the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting. It is worth mentioning that the US stock market will be closed on Thursday (January 9) to mourn former President Jimmy Carter's passing.
Economic Data
In terms of economic data, the most anticipated release this week is the US December nonfarm payroll report, which is set to be released on Friday. The market is currently expecting nonfarm payroll employment to slow down to an increase of 153,000 in December, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.2%.
The strength of the labor market is a key factor in Federal Reserve policy decisions. Other important data indicating the state of the US labor market include the US December ADP employment figures, also known as the "mini nonfarm", set to be released on Wednesday. Additionally, the US November JOLTs job openings will be released on Tuesday, with a significant decrease in job openings possibly triggering speculation about a Fed interest rate cut.
Meanwhile, key data on the service sector will be released on Monday and Tuesday. The US December SPGI services PMI final reading will be released on Monday, and the US December ISM non-manufacturing PMI will be released on Tuesday. Given the significant share of the service sector in the US economy, this data will provide crucial information on the momentum of US economic development. After mixed signals in recent months, any significant deviation from expectations could affect market sentiment.
Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes
The minutes of the December Federal Reserve meeting will be released on Wednesday. Investors will closely analyze these minutes to understand the Fed's thoughts on potential policy shifts. Any hints regarding the timing or pace of interest rate cuts could lead to significant market fluctuations.
In addition, Federal Reserve Board members Lisa Cook, Christopher Waller, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker will be speaking this week.
Company Earnings and Other Developments
This week, Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL.US), Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF.US), Albertsons Companies, Inc. Class A (ACI.US), and Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (WBA.US) will release their latest quarterly earnings reports.
Furthermore, NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) CEO Jensen Huang will deliver the opening keynote address at the 2025 Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas on Monday. Many analysts believe that this event could drive up the stock price of this artificial intelligence chip giant.