Huafu Securities: Steel exports retreat from high levels, policy favorability will stabilize steel demand next year.

Huafu Securities released a research report stating that looking ahead to December, in the short term, as we enter the off-season, supply and demand will weaken, but the inventory levels are not high and the pressure of supply and demand contradiction has not yet appeared. Particularly, steel mill inventories remain at a reasonable level, and there is also some anticipation for winter storage in society, which will provide good support for steel prices in the short term. In the long term, the National Financial Work Conference pointed out that by 2025, a more proactive fiscal policy will be implemented, increasing the fiscal deficit ratio. The National Housing Urban and Rural Construction Work Conference pointed out the need to continuously push forward stabilizing the real estate market, vigorously implementing urban renewal, and with clear and continuous policy directions, the demand for steel in industries such as infrastructure and real estate will further stabilize by 2025. This will lead to a substantial improvement in the fundamentals of the steel market, and steel prices are expected to stabilize. The main points of Huafu Securities are as follows: Iron ore 1) Production: In November, domestic iron ore production was 81.15 million tons, a decrease of 6.1% month-on-month and 9.3% year-on-year; from January to November, cumulative domestic iron ore production was 952.26 million tons, an increase of 1.9% year-on-year. 2) Imports: In November, iron ore and its concentrates imported 101.86 million tons, a decrease of 1.9% month-on-month and 0.9% year-on-year; from January to November, cumulative iron ore and concentrate imports were 1.12424 billion tons, an increase of 4.3% year-on-year. Coking coal 1) Production: In November, raw coal production was 428 million tons, an increase of 1.8% year-on-year; from January to November, raw coal production was 4.322 billion tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 1.2%. In November, Shanxi's raw coal production was 114 million tons, an increase of 1.95% month-on-month and a decrease of 4.0% year-on-year; the cumulative raw coal production was 1.16 billion tons, a decrease of 7.3% compared to last year. 2) Imports: In November, imported coking coal was 12.295 million tons, an increase of 24.02% year-on-year; cumulative imports of coking coal from January to November were 111.51 million tons, an increase of 23.32% year-on-year. Steel 1) Crude steel: In November, crude steel production was 78.4 million tons, a decrease of 4.3% month-on-month but an increase of 2.5% year-on-year; from January to November, cumulative crude steel production was 929.19 million tons, a decrease of 2.7% year-on-year. 2) Steel products: In November, steel producti...