Guotai Junan: The peak season for food and beverage will add further catalysis, focusing on marginal improvements.

Guotai Junan released a research report, stating that the food and beverage industry has entered a peak consumption season, with the overall volume expected to be supported by additional direct consumer subsidies. The report emphasizes the differentiation in fundamentals of the liquor industry, and expresses optimism for the continued prosperity of the leisure food sector and marginal improvements in the restaurant supply chain. Meanwhile, WeChat Mini Program has officially started testing the "send gift" feature, and it is expected that single products such as leisure food and cosmetics will benefit substantially in the short term. The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the liquor, leisure food, and mainstream product sectors. Key points from Guotai Junan: - Liquor industry has experienced operating differentiation in the peak season, returning to fundamentals. - Favorable expectations of volume policy driving liquor valuation recovery, emphasis on industry trends and individual stock performance, with the sector entering a period of performance observation, expecting the characteristics of "quantity over price rigidity" in liquor consumption to continue. It is predicted that in Q1 2025, the trend of major companies accumulating inventory while smaller ones reducing it will continue, with smaller enterprises still in a phase of deep adjustment. Leading companies will continue to gain market share, particularly benefiting those with high channel density and strong brand awareness. - Addition of gift giving scenario strengthens the prosperity of the leisure food industry. - Expectation of improvement in the restaurant supply chain, focusing on marginal improvements. - Investment advice: Catalysts in peak season, focus on marginal improvements. 1) Liquor industry entering a phase of prosperity verification, with operating differentiation, recommending to hold: stocks like Wuliangye Yibin, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory, Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, Anhui Yingjia Distillery, Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery Joint-Stock, Anhui Gujing Distillery, as well as Sichuan Swellfun, Shede Spirits, Jiugui Liquor, and ZJLD of Hong Kong Stock Exchange. 2) Leisure food industry benefiting from online gift giving and prosperous season, recommending to hold: companies like Three Squirrels Inc., YouYou Foods, Yanker Shop Food, Jinzai Food Group, Chacha Food, WL DELICIOUS of Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and Ganyuan Foods, Haoxiangni Health Food. 3) Marginal improvements in mainstream products: - Seasonings: recommending to hold companies like Shanghai Bolex Food Technology, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food, Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding, and Qianhe Condiment And Food. - Beer and beverages: recommending to hold companies like Tsingtao Brewery, Beijing Yanjing Brewery, Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery, Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group, Eastroc Beverage, as well as China Resources Beer, Nongfu Spring of Hong Kong Stock Exchange. - Dairy products: recommending to hold companies like Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group, New Hope Dairy, and Mengniu Dairy of Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Risk warning: Increased macroeconomic fluctuations, food safety issues, industry policy adjustments, etc.