Allied Consultancy: It is expected that the market penetration rate of OLED laptops will rise to 3% by 2024.

According to the latest OLED technology and market development analysis report from TrendForce, due to large-scale purchases by mainland notebook computer brands, it is expected that the penetration rate of OLED laptops will rise to 3% by 2024. Although the growth rate in 2025 is expected to be limited, with Apple planning to introduce OLED display technology into the MacBook series, it is expected to drive the OLED high-generation production lines of panel factories to start operations by the end of 2026, thereby boosting the OLED laptop penetration rate to over 5% by 2027. The demonstration effect in the high-end market will also affect the product strategies of other brands, driving the application of OLED technology in the IT market. TrendForce believes that the application of OLED display technology has expanded from smartphones to include tablets, laptops, wearable devices, and automotive displays, prompting panel manufacturers to accelerate the construction of high-generation production lines. In order to optimize product life, OLED architecture will adopt Tandem technology. Due to the need for improvement in production yield in the early stages of mass production, the overall manufacturing cost is high, which may affect the launch schedule of OLED MacBooks. However, Samsung Display (SDC) and BOE have already started setting up G8.6 production lines, and it is expected that SDC will be the first to launch G8.6 OLED products produced in their own brand by the second half of 2026. Visionox Technology Inc. plans to start mass production on a high-generation production line in 2028, using its new generation ViP display technology to expand applications. JDI recently established the eLEAP strategic alliance with Chunghwa Picture Tubes and its subsidiary CarUX to promote a 32-inch OLED integrated in-car display. As for LG Display's high-generation production line plan, it is still in the evaluation stage due to funding constraints. TrendForce reports that, in terms of OLED backplane technology, BOE uses the LTPO (Low Temperature Polycrystalline Oxide) technology, which has excellent display performance but higher costs. This technology requires expensive manufacturing equipment, along with high process accuracy requirements, which may affect the cost structure of BOE's OLED laptop panels. In terms of deposition technology, OLED high-generation panels that use Tandem technology must achieve a certain deposition yield. As the demand for deposition machines increases, whether manufacturers can afford and when they can obtain this core equipment will also affect the development of applications. Currently, new technologies such as ViP and eLEAP have adopted photolithography processes, which have advantages such as high aperture ratio, but the more complex processes will inevitably affect the yield. TrendForce points out that in the early stages of mass production of high-generation OLED panels, due to the need for improvement in yield and significant pressure on material prices, in terms of cash cost, it is estimated that it will take one and a half to two years for newly constructed G8.6 high-generation factories to catch up with G6 production lines. However, in the past, OLED luminous materials were monopolized by international giants with technical patents, leading to high prices. This problem is expected to be alleviated as relevant patents expire and panel manufacturers start importing materials from Chinese suppliers. TrendForce believes that the expansion of production scale and increased bargaining power due to the enlargement of the substrate area in high-generation panel production lines will effectively reduce costs. It is expected that once the new factories are up and running smoothly and the yield improves, the advantages of high-generation factories will be demonstrated.