Wanlian Securities: Acceleration of Solid-State Battery Industrialization with Vast Market Space in the Future

Wanlian Securities released a research report stating that solid-state batteries have gradually transitioned from the laboratory research and development stage to the factory trial stage, and the release of models equipped with solid-state batteries is becoming more frequent. According to the plans announced by major manufacturers, it is expected that starting from 2026, the solid-state battery market will officially enter the mass production stage, and the industrialization process of solid-state batteries is expected to significantly accelerate. Based on the analysis of the solid-state battery technology route and cost reduction path, EVTank predicts that solid-state batteries will start mass production in 2025. The industrialization of solid-state batteries will accelerate, the material system will iterate, and it is recommended to focus on electrolyte systems and positive and negative electrode materials. Wanlian Securities' main viewpoints are as follows: Solid-state batteries have high safety and are expected to break through the energy density limit. Safety: The working temperature range of solid-state batteries is wider, with better heat resistance, and solid-state electrolytes have the characteristics of high-temperature resistance, non-flammability, and good insulation, greatly enhancing safety performance; Energy density: Currently, liquid lithium battery technology is basically mature, and the potential of materials has been exploited close to the limit. Solid-state batteries have improvements in both positive and negative electrode materials and battery structure, and the energy density can reach over 500Wh/kg, potentially achieving a breakthrough in energy density limits. Material system iteration, transitioning from semi-solid to fully solid. Solid-state battery technology development is difficult, and semi-solid batteries are a transitional phase. At the same time, the advancement of solid-state battery technology is expected to drive the iteration of electrolyte and positive and negative electrode materials. In terms of specific aspects, electrolytes: oxides have progressed rapidly, with high potential for sulfides. Currently, solid-state batteries are mainly divided into oxide, sulfide, and polymer three mainstream technology routes. Among them, polymers started early, with a mature technology level, but have great difficulty in breaking through the limit; oxides show balanced performance in all aspects, but have higher preparation costs; sulfides have great commercialization potential, but also face the greatest difficulty in industrialization research. Negative electrode materials: Silicon-based negative electrodes are the main solution in the medium to short term, and metallic lithium is the future long-term development direction. Traditional liquid lithium batteries mainly use carbon-based materials (such as graphite) as negative electrodes, with limited future development space; silicon-based negative electrode materials have a high theoretical capacity and can significantly improve battery performance, but are limited by volume expansion; metallic lithium has the advantages of high capacity and low potential, and is the ultimate goal of negative electrode materials for solid-state batteries. Positive electrode materials: High-voltage, high-capacity positive electrode materials are the development direction. Solid-state battery positive electrode materials have strong compatibility, and currently mainly use the ternary high nickel system, with leading positive electrode material manufacturers in the ternary material system. In the long term, the high energy density advantages of lithium-rich manganese-based materials are prominent and are expected to become the main direction of future positive electrode material iteration. Countries continue to make efforts in policies to promote the commercialization of solid-state battery technology. In terms of policies, since 2020, Japan, the United States, South Korea, and the European Union have continuously introduced policies related to the industrialization of solid-state batteries, making the industrialization of solid-state batteries one of the strategic goals of the country. China has successively released policies such as the "New Energy Automobile Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)", the "14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of New Energy Storage", and the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Development of Energy Electronics Industry" to support the development of the solid-state battery industry. In terms of corporate layout, Japanese and Korean companies focus on the sulfide route, while European and American companies mainly invest in startups. Japan's solid-state battery technology development started earlier, with a leading edge in sulfide solid electrolytes; the development of solid-state battery technology in the United States is mainly promoted by startups, with key companies including Solid Power, Quantum Scape, Factorial Energy, etc., collaborating with European car manufacturers to promote the construction of solid-state battery production capacity; there are numerous participants in the domestic solid-state battery industry, covering various types of companies such as vehicle manufacturers, battery manufacturers, solid-state battery startups, lithium battery material manufacturers, etc., with layouts in various links of the solid-state battery industry chain. An industrial turning point is approaching, with vast market opportunities in the future. From 2025 to 2030, solid-state battery technology is expected to enter a stage of rapid breakthrough, and the material system is expected to accelerate iteration. Currently, solid-state batteries have gradually transitioned from the laboratory research and development stage to the factory trial stage, with the release of models equipped with solid-state batteries becoming more frequent. According to the plans announced by major manufacturers, it is expected that starting from 2026, the solid-state battery market will officially enter the mass production stage, and the industrialization process of solid-state batteries is expected to significantly accelerate. Based on the analysis of the solid-state battery technology route and cost reduction path, EVTank predicts that solid-state batteries will start mass production in 2025, and by 2030, global solid-state battery shipments are expected to reach 614.1GWh, with a penetration rate of approximately 10% in the overall lithium battery market, surpassing a market size of over 250 billion yuan. Investment recommendations: The industrialization of solid-state batteries is accelerating, the material system is iterating, and is expected to drive the upgrade of the lithium battery industry chain. In terms of electrolyte systems: The oxide system solid-state battery is developing rapidly, and the technology is relatively mature, while the sulfide system solid-state battery has a high upper limit and has significant room for development. It is recommended to focus on downstream battery manufacturers with a leading position in the oxide and sulfide routes, as well as upstream companies with the production capacity of key raw materials for solid-state electrolytes. In terms of positive and negative electrode materials: With the application of solid-state electrolytes, lithium batteries are expected to be compatible with high-capacity positive and negative electrode materials. The positive electrode material route is expected to transition from lithium iron phosphate, high-nickel to high-nickel solidification, and lithium-rich technology, while the negative electrode material route is expected to shift from graphite to silicon oxide and metallic lithium. It is recommended to focus on stocks leading in the layout of high-nickel positive electrodes and silicon-based negative electrodes. Risk factors: It is advisable to pay attention to risks such as industrialization progress falling below expectations, significant fluctuations in raw material prices, lower-than-expected downstream demand, technology route replacements, policy changes, etc.