Oppenheimer: This momentum indicator suggests that the uptrend in US stocks will continue next year.
18/11/2024
GMT Eight
According to Oppenheimer's data, the monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that the overall stock market will not peak until 2025.
Technical analyst Ari Wald wrote in a report, "Momentum indicators also suggest that the highest risk in the market in the coming months is below average levels."
"Since 1936, the median duration between the first time the S&P 500 Index 14-month RSI reaches 70 and the peak of the cycle is 12 months, with a median return of +19% during this period," Wald said. "This signal was issued at the end of August."
"In addition, out of 18 times, 15 times (83%) had at least 6 months from the peak of the cycle, and out of 18 times, 12 times (67%) rose by at least 10% after the peak."
In the short term, Wald recommends taking the best technical buy/sell combinations in each industry:
Energy: Buy Cheniere Energy (LNG.US), sell Shell (SHEL.US).
Materials: Buy CRH public limited company (CRH.US), sell Dow, Inc. (DOW.US) chemicals.
Industrials: Buy Dover Corporation (DOV.US), sell Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD.US).
Non-essential Consumer Goods: Buy Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US), sell MGM Resorts International (MGM.US).
Essential Consumer Goods: Buy Kroger Co. (KR.US), sell Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM.US).
Healthcare: Buy Stryker Corporation (SYK.US), sell IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX.US).
Financials: Buy Blackstone (BX.US), sell ING Groep NV Sponsored ADR group (ING.US).
Real Estate: Buy Welltower (WELL.US), sell CoStar Group, Inc. (CSGP.US).
Information Technology: Buy Palo Alto Networks (PANW.US), sell Microchip Technology Incorporated (MCHP.US).
Communications Services: Buy Meta (META.US), sell AES Corporation (AES.US).