After surpassing all targets of Wall Street, can the high growth story of "AI bull stock" Palantir (PLTR.US) no longer continue?
14/11/2024
GMT Eight
Notice that the performance of Palantir (PLTR.US) has left skeptics puzzled. Despite some on Wall Street questioning its high valuation and the sustainability of its revenue growth, its stock price continues to rise.
Palantir has surged over 250% this year, with a significant portion of the increase coming from last week's earnings exceeding expectations. Trump's election victory has also boosted the company, with bulls pointing to the company's relationship with the Trump administration and the potential for increased sales as the new government pushes for artificial intelligence.
The recent uptrend has further inflated Palantir's already high valuation. The company's expected P/E ratio is around 135 times, far higher than the average P/E ratio of around 27 times for companies in the Nasdaq 100 index. It is also the most expensive stock in the S&P 500 based on the ratio of enterprise value to revenue. For some investors, the surge has been too much, with two analysts downgrading the stock rating in the past week.
Jefferies analyst Brent Thill wrote, "Even though the fundamentals are good, Palantir must increase its revenue growth rate to 40% for four consecutive years and reach a P/E ratio of 12 times the projected revenue for 2028 in order to sustain its stock price." He also stated that this "seems unlikely." According to data compiled by Bloomberg, the market generally expects the company's growth rate to be 26% this year and 24% next year. Thill downgraded the stock rating to "underperform," citing unsustainable valuation.
Argus Research analyst Joseph Bonner expressed a similar view. Bonner wrote, "Palantir's stock price has already doubled this year, potentially exceeding the range supported by the company's fundamentals." He downgraded the stock rating to hold.
He added, "Palantir specifically serves a small set of organizations facing highly complex IT challenges, which may lead to imbalanced results, and the market tends to punish overvalued tech stocks."
The conflicting attitudes of Wall Street towards the stock are reflected in analyst data tracked by Bloomberg. Among the 20 companies researching the company, half give a "hold" or equivalent rating, while three companies rate Palantir as "buy" and seven companies suggest "sell." The average target implies a 39% decline - a huge gap from the current trading price, which may partly be attributed to Palantir's retail investor community, who are among its biggest supporters.
There are also signs that some believe this uptrend has gone too far. According to data from S3 Partners LLC, as Palantir's stock price soared, short sellers betting against Palantir have faced over $3.6 billion in paper losses this year. But they have doubled down on their bets for the stock to fall, with data showing that short interest as a percentage of Palantir's float has risen from 2.8% at the beginning of September to 4.6% this week.
On the other hand, Trump's decisive election victory has given bulls new reason to be optimistic about the company, as over half of Palantir's revenue comes from government contracts.
DA Davidson's Gil Luria gave the stock a "neutral" rating, believing that Palantir will benefit from its close ties to Trump, as CEO and co-founder Alex Karp, co-founder Joe Lonsdale, and chairman Peter Thiel "all have very close relationships with this administration."
Luria stated in an interview that Palantir's vision "aligns with Trump and his government's ideology," especially in the "clear vision of selling only to Western countries," and added that the company is "a flagship of patriotic American businesses."
Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, is a long-term bull on Palantir and believes that the company will be able to win more government contracts under the new government's strong push for artificial intelligence. He wrote, "We expect significant AI programs within the U.S. government, including the Department of Defense, to be a major positive."
However, even Ives' highest target price on Wall Street of $57 has been surpassed in the past week, highlighting the speed and magnitude of the latest surge in Palantir and the challenges investors face when reaching the peak.