Hong Kong stock market sentiment has significantly improved, and FOSUN INTL (00656) is expected to see a significant rise in value.
25/09/2024
GMT Eight
The stimulus from the 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, combined with a series of major favorable policies announced by the Governor of the People's Bank of China, Pan Gongsheng, on September 24, major indices such as the Shanghai Stock Exchange, Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and Hang Seng Index have seen a general rise. Market sentiment has significantly improved, and stocks with solid growth prospects and value fundamentals are expected to attract capital investment priority. FOSUN INTL (00656), as a global leader in the innovation-driven global consumer industry with industrial layout in over 35 countries and regions, is worthy of being given a higher valuation by the market and may be the first to stand out.
Anticipation of reserve requirement ratio reduction leads to profit window opening in the Hong Kong stock market.
In today's global economic stage, the US economy acts like a giant stone thrown into the water, causing ripples that quickly spread to all corners of the world. Recently, the Federal Reserve made a significant 50 basis point interest rate cut. According to the Federal Reserve's forecast, the year-end federal funds rate in the US will reach 4.4% in 2019, with a target range of 4.25% to 4.5%, and is expected to decrease to 3.4% by 2025 and 2.9% by 2026.
Analysis indicates that as the Federal Reserve initiates interest rate cuts, the monetary policy space of various central banks further opens up. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut helps alleviate capital outflows and exchange rate fluctuations from countries outside the US, promotes economic growth, boosts market sentiment, and drives stock market gains.
On September 24, Governor Pan Gongsheng of the People's Bank of China announced a series of major policies, including reserve requirement ratio reductions, interest rate cuts, and reductions in existing mortgage rates, which drew high market attention. Market expectations suggest that lowering the reserve requirement ratio could release 1 trillion RMB of liquidity. The reserve requirement ratio reduction announced on the 24th is the second reduction of the year, totaling a 1 percentage point reduction in reserve requirements and providing approximately 2 trillion RMB of long-term liquidity to the market. The expectation of multiple favorable policies will boost consumer spending and market confidence.
From September 10 to 24, the Hang Seng Index has maintained an upward trend for 8 consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of over 12%. Against the backdrop of the interest rate cut cycle and frequent favorable policies, the Hong Kong stock market is gradually entering an accelerated profit and recovery window, where stocks with stable fundamentals and significant value potential deserve attention.
Building a series of top-notch core industries, enhancing the advantages in strategic industries
Since its establishment in 1992, FOSUN INTL has expanded its industrial layout to over 35 countries and regions globally, with continuously improving operational capabilities in globalization. It has now become an innovative-driven global family consumer goods conglomerate.
In the first half of 2024, FOSUN INTL's four core subsidiaries - Shanghai Yuyuan Tourist Mart, Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical, Fosun Portugal Insurance, and Fosun Travel and Culture - actively promoted a focus strategy, concentrating core assets on leading growth-oriented and value-oriented enterprises in their respective industries, all of which have achieved leading market positions in their industries and solid competitive advantages.
At the same time, as a leader in globalization, FOSUN INTL's overseas business continues to provide stable profit expectations. In the first half of 2024, the group's overseas revenue reached 45.87 billion RMB, a 4% year-on-year increase, accounting for a rising 47% of total revenue. High-quality global business has gradually become a new engine for growth.
Through focused core business, FOSUN INTL has continued to enhance its competitive advantages in key strategic industries such as pharmaceuticals, tourism, consumption, and insurance.
For example, in the insurance sector, Fosun Portugal Insurance achieved double-digit growth in domestic and international business in the first half of this year, with the proportion of overseas performance further increasing. International business recorded total premiums of 885 million euros, accounting for more than 30%; its MyFidelidade App registered users exceeded 1.6 million, more than 15% of Portugal's total population, with a 16% year-on-year growth in digital channel sales.
In the tourism and culture sector, FOSUN INTL's asset-light operating model has also achieved significant success, with Club Med, Atlantis Sanya, and Taicang Alps becoming benchmarks in the domestic tourism industry. For example, Club Med operates 67 resorts globally, with the proportion of resorts using leasing and management models at 85% and self-owned resorts at 15%, achieving record revenue of 8.89 billion RMB in the first half of 2024, a 10.3% year-on-year increase. Sales in Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and the Americas continued to grow, while the Asia-Pacific region showed significant recovery. In May 2024, Club Med signed the first resort in the Middle East in Oman.
Today, under Fosun Travel and Culture, Club Med is the global leader in exquisite all-inclusive resort vacations; Atlantis Sanya is the leading high-end integrated holiday destination in China, driving Hainan tourism into the 3.0 era; and Yuyuan's Old Temple Gold, a well-known Chinese time-honored brand and a nationally renowned jewelry brand. These companies and products that are "best in class" in their respective industries help FOSUN INTL continue to consolidate its leading position in relevant industries.
CAR-T therapy, innovative drugs, cutting-edge medical devices flourish, Fosun enters the commercialization window of the healthcare industry
Recently, CAR-T therapy in China has made significant progress in many aspects. On the one hand, an increasing number of CAR-T therapies have been approved by the National Medical Products Administration and entered the clinical trial and market application phase. On the other hand, leading biopharmaceutical companies have announced new collaborations and research and development plans aimed at improving the efficacy and safety of CAR-T therapy. Governments at various levels are also increasing their support for CAR-T research and industrialization, opening up broader prospects for CAR-T therapy in China.
In recent breakthroughs in cancer immunotherapy, CAR-T therapy has become a focus due to its significant effects on hematological malignancies, particularly B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia (B-ALL). Fosun's joint venture, Fosun Kite's Axi-Cel Injection (trade name: Yikada), is the first CAR-T cell therapy product approved for marketing in China, with two indications already approved.
Today, with theThe annual national medical insurance negotiation is officially launched. Whether CAR-T therapy can be included in medical insurance has once again become a hot topic in the industry. In August of this year, the National Medical Insurance Administration announced the list of drugs that passed the formal review for the adjustment of the drug catalog for the national basic medical insurance, work injury insurance, and maternity insurance in 2024, among which four CAR-T products were listed, and Fosun Kite is one of them.With the maturity of CAR-T therapy, market demand, and policy support, enterprises that have completed the layout of CAR-T products are expected to receive a boost in commercialization. Recently, Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical announced its intention to cash in to acquire 50% equity of Kite Pharma held by Fosun Kite. After the transfer is completed, Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical will hold 100% equity of Fosun Kite and plans to invest $10 million or the equivalent in RMB in Fosun Kite as a sole shareholder.
The market expects that the rapid growth of CAR-T technology and cell therapy products, such as Yescarta, in China can be seen from the close collaboration of the two parties in promoting it. The development prospects of cell therapy are promising, and Fosun is expected to usher in the next upswing cycle.
Now, in the health sector, Fosun has achieved "multifaceted blossoming" with a number of innovative drugs, cutting-edge medical devices, and innovative therapies. Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical has had four products approved for a total of nine indications so far, and four products with a total of nine indications are in pre-approval/key clinical stages. Furthermore, nine products (by indication) have been approved for clinical trials. HENLIUS's innovative biologics, developed and produced independently, continue to make breakthrough progress, with the first-line treatment for small cell lung cancer, the anti-PD-1 monoclonal antibody Hansenzhuang, approved for four indications. On September 9th, SISRAM MED announced that the registration application for its revolutionary long-acting type A botulinum toxin product, Dashifei, has been officially approved by the Chinese National Medical Products Administration for temporary improvement of moderate to severe glabellar lines caused by activity of the corrugator supercilii or the procerus muscle, becoming the first DaxibotulinumtoxinA-lanm botulinum toxin product approved for marketing in China.
In cutting-edge medical devices, on September 6th, Shanghai Chest Hospital completed the first commercial installation of Intuitive Fosun Ion bronchoscope navigation operation control system. This is an important first step in the wider commercialization process of the Ion system in China, and it represents a breakthrough in applying advanced minimally invasive Siasun Robot&Automation technology and better therapeutic effects to lung cancer treatment. By the end of the second quarter, the Ion system had been applied globally 680 times, with 120,000 surgeries, winning a good reputation among hospitals and patients worldwide and demonstrating its positive impact through research.
Apart from the health, cultural tourism, and insurance industries, Fosun's other sectors are also actively advancing their globalization strategy and accelerating performance realization. Yuyao Technology, a leading global automation and digital enterprise under Fosun, reached overseas new orders of 3.99 billion RMB in the first half of 2024. On September 10th, Yuyao Technology's global headquarters was officially opened in Jiading District, Shanghai, and the business in automotive and new energy fields will further expand to the national and overseas markets. On September 13th, Hainan Mining announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Rock Petroleum, plans to make a comprehensive tender offer of approximately 1.302 billion RMB to acquire Tethys Oil AB, thereby obtaining the oilfield rights in multiple blocks in the Sultanate of Oman. This acquisition will not only greatly enhance Hainan Mining's oil and gas business scale but also continuously solidify the global layout of "minerals + energy".
It is foreseeable that with the realization of many globalization and innovation achievements, Fosun International may see a surge in value and, accompanied by a strong market rebound, is worthy of a higher valuation.