CICC: In August, the export amount of inverters increased month-on-month, and the demand for centralized inverters accelerated.

CICC released a research report stating that the export data of inverters in August 2024 was announced. The number of inverters exported in August was 5.48 million units, a year-on-year increase of 31% and a month-on-month decrease of 1%; the export amount was $888 million, a year-on-year increase of 20% and a month-on-month increase of 9%. Overall, the export amount showed a month-on-month increase, while the number of exported units showed a month-on-month decrease. This may reflect the increase in the average selling price due to the increase in the proportion of high-power inverters and demand recovery in the European and American regions. Therefore, the increase in the proportion of high-priced inverters may drive the growth in amount. In August 2024, the number of inverters exported was 5.48 million units, a year-on-year increase of 31% and a month-on-month decrease of 1%, with a total export of 37.32 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 3%; the export amount in August was $888 million, a year-on-year increase of 20% and a month-on-month increase of 9%, with a total export amount of $5.934 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 24%. The growth in export amount is due to the recovery of demand in Europe and America. Overall, the export amount showed a month-on-month increase, while the number of exported units showed a month-on-month decrease, which may reflect: 1) an increase in average selling price due to the increase in the proportion of high-power inverters; 2) demand recovery in the European and American regions, which may drive the growth in amount. In terms of regions, demand recovery was seen in Europe after the end of the holiday season. In August, the export amount to Germany was $86 million, unchanged year-on-year and an increase of 63% month-on-month, while the export amount to the Netherlands was $167 million, a year-on-year decrease of 5% and a month-on-month increase of 15%. CICC expects the export amount to continue to grow in September. Demand in Ukraine fluctuated, with an export amount of $7.29 million in August, a year-on-year increase of 564% and a month-on-month decrease of 2%. The export amount to the United States was $33 million, a year-on-year increase of 20% and a month-on-month increase of 38%. CICC believes that demand for ground-based power stations in the second half of the year in the US is accelerating, and shipments of centralized inverters are expected to increase significantly. Demand in Asia and Africa remained steady, with a decrease in demand in Pakistan due to the continued monsoon season. The export amount in August was $46 million, a year-on-year increase of 431% and a month-on-month decrease of 10%. CICC expects demand to improve after the end of the rainy season in September. The export amount to Vietnam was $6.2 million, a year-on-year decrease of 77% and a month-on-month increase of 20%; the export amount to Brazil was $65 million, a year-on-year increase of 62% and a month-on-month increase of 10%. In terms of regions, the export amount of Anhui, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang increased month-on-month, while the export amount of Guangdong decreased. In August, the export amount to Anhui was $142 million, a year-on-year decrease of 8% and a month-on-month increase of 55%. CICC believes this is mainly due to the growth in demand for overseas centralized power stations in the second half of the year, benefiting Sungrow Power Supply's shipments of centralized inverters. The export amount to Jiangsu was $35 million, a year-on-year increase of 44% and a month-on-month increase of 4%, while the export amount to Zhejiang was $266 million, a year-on-year increase of 164% and a month-on-month increase of 17%. CICC believes that the improvement in shipments of household inverters is mainly due to the recovery of demand in Europe and the pull from the Asia and Africa regions. The export amount to Guangdong in August was $298 million, a year-on-year decrease of 3% and a month-on-month decrease of 7%, which was a narrower decrease than in July. In terms of prices, according to SMM, in August, inverter prices remained stable, with prices of 20/50/110/320KW inverters at 0.14/0.13/0.12/0.1 yuan/W respectively. The prices in September are still stable. Regarding export prices, due to the increase in the proportion of centralized inverters in exports, the average selling price per unit increased in August. CICC believes that the prices of centralized inverters remain stable, while the export prices of different manufacturers of distributed inverters may vary depending on the product power and regional shipment structure. Risks: Fluctuations in raw material prices, exchange rate fluctuations, lower-than-expected demand, intensified competition.