Preview of US Stock Market | Three major stock index futures fell together, "Triple Witching Day" arrives tonight.
20/09/2024
GMT Eight
Pre-market Market Trends
1. Before the market opened on September 20 (Friday), the futures of the three major U.S. stock indexes fell. As of the time of writing, Dow Jones futures fell by 0.01%, S&P 500 index futures fell by 0.23%, and Nasdaq futures fell by 0.36%.
2. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index fell by 0.71%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell by 0.84%, the French CAC 40 index fell by 0.82%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell by 0.75%.
3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil fell by 0.39%, trading at $70.88 per barrel. Brent crude oil also fell by 0.39%, trading at $74.59 per barrel.
Market News
Another Triple Witching Day for U.S. stocks! The market is facing a $5.1 trillion test. According to derivatives analysis company Asym 500, about $5.1 trillion in index, stock, and ETF options are set to expire on Friday. Due to the need for investors and traders to adjust their positions before these contracts expire, the market tends to experience significant volatility and increased trading volume around Triple Witching Days. This Triple Witching Day is a critical moment for market positioning. The Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis points rate cut on Wednesday, the first rate cut in over four years and larger than the 25 basis points most economists had expected. The S&P 500 index is less than 1% away from its all-time high, while the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which measures expected volatility in the S&P 500 index, remains higher than levels before the market sell-offs at the end of July and beginning of August, indicating that investors are still somewhat cautious. Matt Thompson, Co-Portfolio Manager at Little Harbor Advisors, said, "Triple Witching Day could inject more volatility into the market, we just don't know which direction." "Regardless of how the market views the Fed's rate cut, the large number of options expiring on Friday will exacerbate this view."
"U.S. Inflation Watchman" Warns: Fed rate cuts may fall short of dot plot. Lawrence Summers, former US Treasury Secretary and dubbed the "U.S. Inflation Watchman," recently warned that the market's expectations for the Fed rate cut path are too aggressive, and the potential threat of inflation could prevent the Fed from lowering rates as much as expected in the coming years according to the dot plot. He stated, "In actuality, policymakers at the Fed seem to believe that loose monetary policy will go too far looking at the dot plot, but there is a significant risk for potential growth in inflation rates." He also warned investors...
After the rate cut cycle begins, how will the Fed proceed next? Wall Street is discussing. After the Fed initiated a rate cut cycle this week, the largest banks on Wall Street have differing opinions on the speed and magnitude of future rate cuts by the Fed. Until the outlook is clear, financial markets will remain tense. Economists and strategists at Bank of America Corp wrote that the Fed will be forced to cut rates further, with a further 75 basis points cut in the fourth quarter and another 125 basis points cut next year. Economists at Barclays PLC Sponsored ADR believe that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in November and December, followed by three...
The Fed's major move disrupts global markets, prosperity or recession? Investors are anxious! Major global investors are vigilant about market volatility, as the recent aggressive rate cuts by the Fed have raised concerns about whether the US economy will thrive or fall into recession, leading to chaos in global stock, bond, and currency markets. Some fund managers warn that significant rate cuts by the Fed may provide too much support to the already strong US economy, boosting global economic growth, but could also push up commodity and consumer prices. Trevor Greetham, Asset Allocation Director at Legal & General Investment Management, said, "I think it's more likely that Fed rate cuts will be too large, leading to accelerated economic growth. There may not be a great deal of global rate cuts then." He also expects increased market volatility thereafter. Tim Drayson, Chief Economist at Legal & General Investment Management, said, "I think the market will experience more turmoil, there is too much risk." Shamil Gohil, Portfolio Manager at Fidelity International, also expects increased global market volatility. Investors also warn that if US economic data changes the market's view on the Fed's next steps, the outlook for global central banks may change.
Fed's unexpected 50 basis points rate cut, Carlyle Group Inc warns: Inflation risks rise, 4.5% may become the new norm. Jason Thomas, Director of Global Research and Investment Strategy at Carlyle Group Inc, warned investors to be prepared for a possible resurgence of inflation, as this could lead Fed officials to maintain rates around 4.5%. Thomas believes that although current interest rates are still relatively high, after the Fed's 50 basis points rate cut this week, the central bank is likely to cut rates at least two more times. However, as industries that were stagnating due to rising borrowing costs begin to recover strongly...The world's largest economy may face new price pressures. He further pointed out, "Although there will definitely be more rate cuts, I believe the room for rate cuts is smaller than what the market expects."Individual stock news
FedEx Corporation (FDX.US) Q1 earnings shock, pre-market stock price plummeted more than 12%. For the first fiscal quarter ending August 31, the company's adjusted earnings per share were $3.60, significantly below analysts' expectations of $4.77 and the $4.37 from the same period last year. Revenue was $21.6 billion, slightly below analysts' expectations of $21.9 billion. This marks another warning sign for the direction of the US economy.
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) partners with UAE AI company G42 to create a climate technology laboratory. According to a statement on Friday, the two companies will focus on developing artificial intelligence that can improve the accuracy of weather forecasts. They will rely on NVIDIA Corporation's climate digital twin cloud platform Earth-2, which aims to help scientists and researchers better understand and predict the impact of climate change using high-precision simulation and visualization technology, reducing economic losses from extreme weather. The statement notes that the climate technology laboratory "will serve as a research center to drive both companies' commitment to environmental sustainability" and will also "mobilize to create tailored climate and weather solutions utilizing over 100PB of geophysical data assets".
After the end of the lock-up period, insiders may quickly sell off, causing the stock price of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT.US) to plunge continuously. Trump Media & Technology Group went public on the Nasdaq at the end of March after merging with a special purpose acquisition company. According to the terms of the company's initial public offering (lock-up agreement), Trump and others who obtained shares before the listing were not allowed to sell any shares for about 180 days. This lock-up clause ended on September 19. The stock price of Trump Media & Technology Group had reached a high of $79.38 after the IPO, with traders believing it was a speculative bet on Trump's return to the White House. However, the stock has since fallen significantly, accelerating in recent weeks after Trump lost his lead over Democratic presidential candidate Harris in opinion polls. Concerned that insiders would sell off their stock after the lock-up period, the stock price of Trump Media & Technology Group has fallen for four consecutive trading days this week, dropping more than 18%. As of the time of writing, Trump Media & Technology Group is down over 4% in pre-market trading on Friday.
Buffett continues to sell nearly $900 million worth of Bank of America (BAC.US) stock, recouping all investment costs. In a series of transactions disclosed in a filing on Thursday, Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway sold $896 million worth of Bank of America Corp stock this week. This means that, excluding the impact of taxes, Buffett's total profits from selling Bank of America stock since mid-July, along with dividends received since 2011, have exceeded the $14.6 billion spent on purchasing Bank of America Corp shares. The 94-year-old Buffett bought Bank of America Corp's preferred shares and warrants for $5 billion in 2011, establishing an investment in Bank of America Corp. Six years later, after the bank raised its dividend, he converted these shares into common stock. During his investment period, Bank of America Corp's stock price doubled. As Buffett continues to sell Bank of America Corp's stock, the investment master, known as the "Oracle of Omaha," has now recouped all of his investment costs in the stock, with his remaining stake of over $34 billion worth of Bank of America Corp stock being pure profit.
NIKE, Inc. Class B (NKE.US) surges nearly 7% in pre-market trading! Former executive Elliott Hill returns as CEO to revitalize sales. NIKE, Inc. Class B announced that former executive Elliott Hill will rejoin the company, replacing John Donahoe as president and CEO. The sportswear giant is restructuring its senior leadership team in an effort to rejuvenate sales and compete in an increasingly fierce market. Hill worked at NIKE, Inc. Class B for 32 years, holding senior leadership positions in Europe and North America, helping the company grow its business to over $39 billion. Before retiring in 2020, Hill served as president of consumer markets for NIKE, Inc. Class B, leading all commercial and market operations for the brand. The company also said that Hill will also serve as a director on the board of directors and executive committee at NIKE, Inc. Class B. As of the time of writing, NIKE, Inc. Class B is up nearly 7% in pre-market trading on Friday.
It is reported that Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US) will increase the settlement amount for the talcum powder cancer lawsuits to over $8.2 billion. According to sources familiar with the matter, Johnson & Johnson has raised the settlement amount for thousands of talcum powder cancer lawsuits to over $8.2 billion, up from the $6.5 billion previously proposed. The decision to increase the settlement amount will bring the total amount that Johnson & Johnson has agreed to pay or has already paid to resolve talcum powder-related lawsuits to over $13.4 billion. The sources further added that, under the new terms, claimants may receive higher compensation and approximately $650 million in legal fees. Settlement negotiations are ongoing. Johnson & Johnson maintains that talc (which has been discontinued) has never caused cancer. The company recently obtained the consent of over 75% of the plaintiffs in talcum powder-related lawsuits, reaching an out-of-court settlement agreement. If more plaintiffs agree to this agreement, it will help Johnson & Johnson accelerate bankruptcy proceedings and limit liability to a subsidiary established to settle legal claims.Investigating the company. It is reported that the company may file for bankruptcy in the coming days.Important economic data and event forecast
At 02:00 Beijing time the next day, 2026 FOMC voting member and Philadelphia Fed President Harker will deliver a speech at Freeman School of Business, Duke University.