Overnight US stocks | Retail sales unexpectedly increased in August, and the S&P 500 index hit a new all-time high during trading.

date
18/09/2024
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GMT Eight
Bank of America On Tuesday, the three major stock indexes experienced mixed movements. The Dow and the S&P 500 both reached new intraday highs, but the Dow ultimately closed lower. The Federal Reserve began a two-day monetary policy meeting today, with the rate decision set to be announced tomorrow. [US Stocks] At the close, the Dow fell 15.90 points, or 0.04%, to 41606.18; the Nasdaq rose 35.93 points, or 0.20%, to 17628.06; the S&P 500 rose 1.49 points, or 0.03%, to 5634.58. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) fell 1%, Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT.US) fell 6%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index rose by 1.8%, Li Auto, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A (LI.US) rose 12%, Alibaba Group Holding Limited Sponsored ADR (BABA.US) rose 1%, JD.com, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A (JD.US) rose 2%. [European Stocks] The German DAX30 index rose 107.41 points, or 0.58%, to 18736.15; the UK FTSE 100 index rose 32.37 points, or 0.39%, to 8310.81; the French CAC40 index rose 37.98 points, or 0.51%, to 7487.42; the Euro Stoxx 50 index rose 32.52 points, or 0.67%, to 4860.15; the Spanish IBEX35 index rose 119.00 points, or 1.03%, to 11700.00; the Italian FTSE MIB index rose 195.02 points, or 0.58%, to 33765.00. [Asia-Pacific Stock Market] The Nikkei 225 index fell more than 1%, the Indonesia Jakarta Composite index rose 0.25%, and the Vietnam VN30 index rose more than 1.7%. [Gold] Spot gold fell by 0.50% to $2569.50 per ounce, with an intraday trading range of $2586.98-2560.89, moving away from the historical high of $2589.7 set on September 16th. COMEX gold futures fell by 0.47% to $2596.80 per ounce. [Cryptocurrency] Bitcoin rose by 6.4% to $61337, marking the largest intraday gain since August 8th. Pricing in the swap market indicates a 55% probability that the Fed will cut rates by at least 25 basis points on Wednesday. Arbelos Markets President Shiliang Tang stated, "I believe the increasing correlation between cryptocurrencies and traditional markets" is driving Bitcoin higher. [Oil] New York Mercantile Exchange WTI crude oil futures for October delivery rose by $1.10, or 1.57%, to $71.19 per barrel. Brent November crude oil futures rose by $0.95, or over 1.30%, to $73.70 per barrel. [Metals] London metal prices fell, with nickel falling by over 1%, zinc by 0.78%, aluminum by 0.77%, and copper slightly down. [Macro News] US retail sales unexpectedly rose in August, indicating a stable economic foundation. US retail sales in August unexpectedly rose, suggesting that the US economy maintained a solid foundation for most of the third quarter. Data showed that after an upward revision of 1.1% in July, US retail sales rose by 0.1% month-on-month in August. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and food services, retail sales increased by 0.3% last month after a revised 0.4% increase in July. Core retail sales align closely with consumer spending in GDP. Consumer spending accelerated in the second quarter, putting it on a higher growth path before entering the July-September quarter. US NAHB housing market index rises for the first time in 6 months. Prior to the anticipated Fed rate cut, the US National Association of Home Builders' confidence index rose for the first time in 6 months in September. This marked the first rise in the US NAHB housing market index since March, as expectations of a Fed rate cut led to lower mortgage rates, boosting builders' confidence in selling new homes. The NAHB monthly confidence index for September rose by 2 points to 41, exceeding market expectations. The index was at 44 in September last year. Strengthened confidence among real estate builders led to a reduction in incentives offered to homebuyers. The proportion of builders reducing prices in September fell for the first time since April, decreasing by 1 percentage point to 32%. "New Fed Communications Agency": The situation is complicated, and there are doubts about the extent of the Fed's first rate cut. Renowned financial journalist Nick Timiraos, known as the "New Fed Communications Agency," wrote that the Fed is set to cut rates, but there are doubts about the extent of the first rate cut. The Fed typically tends to act in increments of 25 basis points, but this time, things have become more complicated. Timiraos straightforwardly stated that the Fed's benchmark interest rate is currently 5.25%-5.5%, the highest level in 20 years. The Fed is expected to begin cutting rates this Wednesday, aiming to maintain a stable job market amidst cooling inflation pressures. Bank of America Corp's merger deals face stricter scrutiny for Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation approval. According to new guidelines approved by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation on Tuesday, Bank of America Corp's mergers will face tougher regulatory hurdles. The FDIC's plan is the latest move by the Biden administration to crack down on financial company consolidation, adding layers of scrutiny that more directly consider impacts on financial stability, competition, communities, and customers. The agency's board approved the plan by a 3-2 vote during a meeting on Tuesday. According to a statement by the agency, to gain approval for a transaction, the FDIC wants the post-merger company to "more effectively protect the interests of customers than before the merger, and achieve fair, effective, and sustainable competition." These new regulations could affect all transactions in the banking industry, but would particularly impact large-scale transactions like those of Bank of America."When mergers better serve the convenience and needs of the community". In evaluating the potential risks of the financial system, the merged company's assets will exceed $100 billion, and the merger will face stricter scrutiny. The result will be a balancing act, where officials have the authority to assess and potentially reject any merger that does not meet one or more criteria. For example, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation will assess whether the applicant has demonstrated that the benefits of community convenience and needs will outweigh any anti-competitive effects.Due to housing inflation or rekindling, the Bank of Canada may gradually lower interest rates. Tu Nguyen, an economist at the small business consulting firm RSM Canada, said the Bank of Canada may gradually lower interest rates in 25 basis point increments, even though the inflation rate has returned to the central bank's key target of 2%. Inflation data shows that the CPI in August fell from 2.5% the previous month to 2%, Nguyen said, which may make the bet on a 50 basis point cut next month even firmer. She expects Bank of Canada officials may lean towards cutting rates 25 basis points in both October and December, rather than 50 basis points next month, due to concerns about reigniting the fire rebound in the real estate market. Housing costs remain the biggest factor driving overall price increases. [Stock News] Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US) CEO announced: Resuming 5-day office work week, management begins layoffs. Amazon.com, Inc. CEO Andy Jassy announced that from now until January 2nd next year, Amazon.com, Inc. requires employees to gradually return to a 5-day work week as it was before the pandemic. It is understood that previously Amazon.com, Inc. had required employees to return to the office for at least three days a week, and now Amazon.com, Inc. plans to increase that to five days, fully restoring it to pre-pandemic status. In addition, Andy Jassy also called for Amazon.com, Inc. to flatten its organization and required the ratio of ICs to managers to be at least 15%. However, flattening the organization will inevitably lead to organizational consolidation, with some middle managers losing their positions, which is also seen as Amazon.com, Inc. conducting layoffs at the management level. Foreign media: Intel Corporation (INTC.US) CEO proposes cost cutting and strengthening chip manufacturing department. According to foreign media, Intel Corporation stated that it will further separate chip manufacturing and design businesses, as a part of a series of new measures to address one of the most serious crises in its 50-year history. The CEO of Intel Corporation stated in an interview that the company will also suspend factory projects in Germany and Poland for two years, and suspend a manufacturing project in Malaysia until demand picks up. He said the company will also reduce the number of office locations. Since taking office, he has been gradually separating Intel Corporation's manufacturing and chip design businesses. The manufacturing operations began reporting their financial performance separately this year, but they will now become an independent subsidiary under Intel Corporation, rather than a part of Intel Corporation. The CEO of Intel Corporation stated that strengthening the separation of the two businesses will allow the manufacturing department to independently obtain financing, alleviate concerns from customers about independence, and make it more culturally aligned with contract chip manufacturers. [Major Bank Rating] Bank of America: Maintains Buy rating on Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US), target price of $210.

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