Preview of US Stock Market | The three major stock index futures are mixed, "super central bank week" is coming!

In the pre-market on September 16 (Monday), the futures of the three major US stock indexes were mixed. As of the time of writing, the Dow futures were up 0.21%, S&P 500 futures were down 0.10%, and Nasdaq futures were down 0.39%. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index was down 0.13%, the UK FTSE 100 index was up 0.02%, the French CAC 40 index was down 0.03%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index was down 0.10%. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil was up 0.83% at $68.31 per barrel, and Brent crude oil was up 0.73% at $72.13 per barrel. Market News Fed to start first rate cut in four years this week Will it protect the US economy for a soft landing? The Fed is set to make a key shift this week with its first rate cut in over four years to achieve a rare soft landing for the US economy. With inflation seemingly under control and signs of weakness in the US labor market, it is widely expected that officials will cut the benchmark interest rate by at least 25 basis points at the end of the two-day meeting on Wednesday. In the financial markets, some traders - and economists at the largest US bank, JPMorgan Chase - are even preparing for a half-point rate cut. BOEs cautious tone questioned Calls for a more aggressive rate cut grow louder. The Bank of England is set to announce its rate decision on September 19, and despite sticking to its exploratory rate cut policy, more and more investors feel that it needs to take more aggressive action. While it is widely expected that Governor Carney and his colleagues will postpone another rate cut on Thursday, fund managers at Abrdn Investment Management Ltd., Aviva Investors, and Allianz Global Investors are betting that this caution will not last long given the slowing economic growth and rising budget tax hikes. Strategists from investment banks like Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., HSBC, and UBS Group AG also agree, believing that officials will soon be forced to step up their efforts in the face of the continued weakening of the UK economy. Not afraid of "Black Monday" making a comeback? More than half of economists predict the Bank of Japan will raise rates again in December. A survey by the media shows that just over half of BOJ watchers believe the central bank's next rate hike will be in December, with no one expecting any action at this week's meeting. The survey found that out of 53 economists, around 87% predict the BOJ will raise borrowing costs before the end of January, with 53% believing December is the most likely time for a hike. The survey results indicate that most analysts believe the market turmoil in the days following the BOJ's rate hike on July 31 were not enough to alarm authorities into abandoning the path of rate normalization. The Bank of Japan is set to conclude its two-day policy meeting on September 20. BOJ Governor Kuroda and other members have recently stressed the need to monitor the still unstable Japanese financial markets, and have indicated that they will not rush to raise rates. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.: US economic outlook downgraded Fed rate cut expectations continue to support the stock market. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. said that recent stock market rotations reflect a downgrade in the US economic growth outlook, but with expectations of a rate cut by the Fed, the S&P 500 index remains close to historic highs. In its report last Friday, the company said it expects the Fed to cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points this week, by 200 basis points by the first quarter of 2026, lower than the market's expectation of 260 basis points. The team led by Chief US Equity Strategist David Kostin said it is maintaining its year-end target of 5,600 for the S&P 500 index, and added that the 6-month and 12-month targets are 5,700 and 6,000 points respectively. Yen makes a big comeback! USD/JPY rises from July lows Breaks key level of 140 after a year. In the Asian trading session on Monday, the USD/JPY exchange rate broke the key psychological level of 140, continuing its uptrend since reaching nearly a 38-year low in July. On Monday, the yen rose by 0.6% against the US dollar, reaching 139.96 yen per dollar, its highest level since July 2023. The yen is the best-performing currency in the G10 group this quarter, as investors expect the interest rate gap between the US and Japan to narrow further, pushing the yen up by 15%. The Fed is almost certain to cut borrowing costs on Wednesday, with the only question being by how much. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is expected to stand pat on Friday after two rate hikes earlier this year. With reduced liquidity during the holiday period, traders are again betting that the US will cut rates by a bigger margin than usual, leading to Bloomberg's USD Strength Index falling to its lowest level since January. Foreign media: Trump faces two clear assassination attempts Bipartisan lawmakers urge strengthening of his security protection. Last Sunday, former US President Trump faced a second clear assassination attempt, and lawmakers from both parties are urging the Secret Service to enhance his protection. A bipartisan special working group investigating the shooting incident is seeking a briefing on the events of Sunday. Some members of Congress said: "All major presidential candidates should receive the highest level of presidential-level 'protection'. Any practice that fails to provide maximum protection is self-inflicted harm and places our country's stability at serious risk." Stock News Guo Mingchi: Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) iPhone 16 series estimated to have pre-ordered around 37 million units in the first weekend, lower than expected for the iPhone 16 Pro series. Guo Mingchi, an analyst at TF International Securities, said that pre-orders for the iPhone 16 series in the first weekend were estimated to be around 37 million units, a decrease of about 12.7% compared to the iPhone 15 series last year. The key issue is that the iPhone 16 Pro series is lower than expected.Guo Mingchi pointed out that the shipping time of the iPhone 16 Pro series is significantly lower than that of the 15 Pro series. Apart from the increase in pre-order stocking, the key reason for the decrease in sales compared to the first weekend is that demand is lower than expected.Intel Corporation (INTC.US) secures Pentagon order? Receives $3.5 billion subsidy to produce chips for the US military. According to media reports last Friday (September 13), chip manufacturer Intel Corporation has reached a binding agreement with US officials, stating that the company is officially eligible to receive up to $3.5 billion in federal funding to produce semiconductors for the US Pentagon. The project, known as "Secure Enclave," will produce advanced chips for the military and intelligence departments and will involve multiple states in the US, including Intel Corporation's manufacturing facility in Arizona. Union strike may turn into a prolonged battle for Boeing Company (BA.US) as financial difficulties may worsen. In an interview on Saturday, Boeing Company union leader Jon Holden stated that the strike "may last for a while" as workers believe they can get higher wage increases and better pensions. Over 30,000 members of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) began the strike last Friday after overwhelmingly rejecting a new contract. Boeing Company produces its best-selling 737 MAX and other jet planes in Seattle and Portland. Boeing Company and union negotiators will return to the bargaining table this week under the supervision of a federal mediator, after over 94% of workers voted against a preliminary contract proposal supported by Holden. Jefferies: Volkswagen (VWAGY.US) plans to lay off over 15,000 employees when closing factories. Jefferies analysts suggest that Volkswagen may forcibly push through decisions to close factories this year, paving the way for laying off over 15,000 employees. Jefferies cited comments from Volkswagen executives on Monday stating that the automaker can close production facilities without needing approval from the supervisory board, potentially resulting in reserves of up to 40 billion euros ($44 billion) in the fourth quarter. The board has previously obstructed management's restructuring efforts. Masimo Corporation (MASI.US) partners with Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOGL.US) to develop a smartwatch platform. Masimo Corporation has entered into a partnership with Alphabet Inc. Class C to build a new reference platform for Alphabet Inc. Class C's Wear OS smartwatch for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). OEMs using the new Masimo Corporation platform will continue to design and manufacture the appearance of new smartwatches and have creative control over the user interface. The Masimo Corporation platform is expected to be compatible with existing Alphabet Inc. Class C applications and services created for the Wear OS platform. Important economic data and events forecast: 20:30 Beijing time: US September New York Fed Manufacturing Index