Open Securities: Online alcohol sales were good in August, focus on packaged drinks and snacks.
In August, the online sales performance of alcoholic beverages channels was good; among popular products, packaged beverages benefited from the peak season of summer consumption, with good sales performance; the dividend in the snack industry is still ongoing.
Open Source Securities released a research report stating that the online sales performance of alcoholic beverages in August was good. As Mid-Autumn Festival approaches, the liquor market has already started stocking up for the festival, with channels more inclined towards top brands that capture consumers' minds quickly. There is an increasing differentiation within the liquor industry.
In the mass-market segment, packaged beverages benefited from the peak summer consumption season, performing well in sales. The snack industry continues to show dividends, with online sales in August holding steady compared to the previous year. Considering the continuous boost from events like summer vacation, Mid-Autumn Festival, and National Day, companies that focus on launching new products and entering new channels are expected to benefit. It is recommended to pay special attention to the snack sector of the mass-market.
Key points from Open Source Securities:
Alcoholic Beverages: Online sales revenue growth, concentration of liquor brands declining while beer brands are increasing
In August 2024, Alibaba's alcoholic beverage industry online sales reached 8.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%. Domestic liquor sales performed relatively well, with a year-on-year increase of 21.3%. The online sales of domestic liquor brands accounted for the highest proportion, reaching 66%. The concentration of top liquor brands in the industry decreased by 36.2 percentage points to 43.5% month-on-month. The concentration of top beer brands increased by 2.2 percentage points month-on-month to 32.7%.
Food: Sales of snack foods remain steady, while sales of grains, oils, and fast food decline
Snack Foods: In August 2024, Alibaba's online sales of snack foods reached 27.7 billion yuan, essentially unchanged year-on-year. Sales volume increased by 1.3% year-on-year, while the average selling price decreased by 1.1% year-on-year. Traditional pastries performed well, with a 43% year-on-year increase. The concentration of top snack food brands in the industry decreased by 1.7 percentage points to 8.3%.
Grains, Oils, and Fast Food: In August 2024, Alibaba's online sales of grains, oils, and fast food reached 22.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.3%. Sales volume increased by 4.0% year-on-year, while the average selling price decreased by 12.1% year-on-year. Baking ingredients performed well in August with a 30.6% year-on-year increase. The concentration of top brands in the grains, oils, and fast food industry increased by 0.75 percentage points to 13.62% month-on-month.
Beverages and Instant Drinks: Online sales of dairy products and instant drink cereals decrease, while packaged beverage sales increase
Dairy Products: In August 2024, Alibaba's online sales of dairy products reached 9.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.9%. Sales volume decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, while the average selling price decreased by 3.6% year-on-year. Low-temperature milk products performed well, with a 109.2% year-on-year increase in August. Packaged milk accounted for a high percentage of online sales, reaching 43.5%. The concentration of top dairy product brands in the industry decreased by 10.3 percentage points to 36.7% month-on-month.
Instant Drink Cereals: In August 2024, Alibaba's online sales of instant drink cereals reached 0.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.3%. Sales volume decreased by 20.5% year-on-year, while the average selling price increased by 1.7% year-on-year. The concentration of top brands in the instant drink cereals industry decreased by 0.41 percentage points to 32.7% month-on-month.
Packaged Beverages: In August 2024, Alibaba's online sales of packaged beverages reached 6.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%. Sales volume increased by 19.2% year-on-year, while the average selling price decreased by 9.6% year-on-year. In August 2024, carbonated beverages performed well with a 29.8% year-on-year increase; fruit-flavored beverages followed with a 20.2% year-on-year increase. Ready-to-drink tea accounted for a high percentage of online sales, reaching 17.2%.
Stock Recommendations: It is suggested to pay more attention to Wuliangye Yibin (000858.SZ), Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory (600809.SH), Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH), etc.
Risk Warnings: Lower-than-expected macroeconomic performance, food safety risks, and increased industry competition.
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